FNUS75 KRIW 110106 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR SHEEP HERDER...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 706 PM MDT MON SEP 10 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1749 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION...THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT WILL STILL BE AROUND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS QUICK REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF THE FIRE COULD HAPPEN. OTHERWISE WILL BE WATCHING THE SOUTH PUSH OF A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST IS POSSIBLE AFTER 1300 TUESDAY AT THE FIRE DUE TO THE LACK OF DEPTH OF THE COOL AIR. ALSO THE ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THREAT REMAINS VALID TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON BECAUSE THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTY INCLUDING THE FIRE AREA. THUS KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY FOR DEVELOPMENT MID MORNING AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE MONITOR WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED AT THE FIRE IF POSSIBLE AND FEEDBACK TO US WOULD BE VERY HELPFUL. THANKS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...AR .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM UNTIL MIDNIGHT. BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-50. MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WIND BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER 0300. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. WIND BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AFTER 0300. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 2000-3000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 25 MPH...DECREASING TO WEST AROUND 15 MPH BY 0300...THEN NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER 0300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO FAIR AFTER MIDNIGHT. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69. MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 1300. THEN WIND SHIFTING TO THE WEST AT 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH BY 1500. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1300. THEN WIND SHIFTING TO THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH BY 1500. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN LAL OF 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.8 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6000-7000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1300. THEN WIND SHIFTING TO THE WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH BY 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR...INCREASING TO GOOD AFTER 1300 AND TO VERY GOOD BY 1500. .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL 2100. THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-46. MAX HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 9 MPH AFTER 2100. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER 2100. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1000-2000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO FAIR BY MIDNIGHT AND TO POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. .THURSDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...WARMER...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...ROSS REQUESTED BY...GLEN LEWIS REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120910.SHEEP.02/RIW