FNUS75 KTFX 101951
FWSTFX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELBOW PASS COMPLEX...GREAT FALLS DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
151 PM MDT MON SEP 10 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1319 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE
TO GENERATE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...SO CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THOUGH THIS THREAT IS
FAIRLY LOW. OTHERWISE...THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
FIRE AREA. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT...LEAVING
BREEZY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY...A DRIER AND NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER WELL OVERNIGHT...THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ONLY
ALLOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BE ABOUT 5 PERCENT HIGHER THAN
TODAY.  COULSTON

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68 VALLEYS...58-63 RIDGES.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18 PERCENT VALLEYS...18-23 PERCENT RIDGES.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
                    OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WIND......WINDY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 35 TO 50 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH.
INVERSION...........NONE.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100 MDT...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29 VALLEYS...29-34 RIDGES.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT VALLEYS...70-75 PERCENT RIDGES.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH DECREASING AFTER 2000
                    MDT TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY AROUND 2400 MDT.
RIDGE TOP WIND......WINDY. WEST WINDS 35 TO 50 MPH DECREASING AFTER
                    2000 MDT TO 30 TO 40 MPH BY AROUND 2400 MDT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400 MDT.
MIXING WINDS........WEST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH.
INVERSION...........DEVELOPING AFTER 2400 MDT.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62 VALLEYS...52-57 RIDGES.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22 PERCENT VALLEYS...25-30 PERCENT RIDGES.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    TO 30 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WIND......NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 25 MPH.
INVERSION...........DISSIPATING BY AROUND 1000 MDT.

$$
FORECASTER...COULSTON
REQUESTED BY...GREAT FALLS DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120910.ELBOW.02/TFX