FNUS75 KTFX 112016
FWSTFX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELBOW PASS COMPLEX...GREAT FALLS DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
216 PM MDT TUE SEP 11 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1316 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AS WINDS GRADUALLY
DECOUPLE TOWARD MIDNIGHT...THEY WILL BECOME MORE TERRAIN-DRIVEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...GOOD VALLEY
RADIATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES THERE TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WITH
GOOD OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ONLY TO NEAR
FREEZING AT MID-SLOPES AND RIDGE TOPS WITH MORE MODERATE HUMIDITY
RECOVERY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT EXITS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY...THE DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY...THE WINDS WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS GUSTY...WHICH WILL LIKELY PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.  COULSTON

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58 VALLEYS...46-51 RIDGES.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT VALLEYS...23-28 PERCENT RIDGES.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 30 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WIND......NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.
INVERSION...........NONE.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-30 VALLEYS...30-35 RIDGES
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT VALLEYS...60-65 PERCENT RIDGES.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 30 MPH THROUGH 2100 MDT...DECREASING
                    TO 5 TO 15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WIND......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 500 FT AGL BY 2400 MDT.
MIXING WINDS........WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
INVERSION...........DEVELOPING AFTER 2200 MDT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61 VALLEYS...49-54 RIDGES.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT VALLEYS...23-28 PERCENT RIDGES.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WIND......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
INVERSION...........DISSIPATING BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200 MDT.

$$
FORECASTER...COULSTON
REQUESTED BY...GREAT FALLS DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120911.ELBOW.02/TFX