FNUS75 KRIW 151054
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALPINE LAKE...BIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
454 AM MDT SAT SEP 15 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2043 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
MDT TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IS
EXPECTED DUE TO VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY WIND AND HAINES
INDEX OF 6. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
EASING A LITTLE BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BRING A WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE FIRE REGION BETWEEN
1200 AND 1500. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 1200
AND 1400 BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A LITTLE
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HOWEVER THE WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY UP
ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER PEAKS AND EXPOSED RIDGE TOPS. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER OR NEAR THE FIRE AFTER 1500 THROUGH MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MIGHT EVEN SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW AT 10000 FEET
MSL BY SUNSET.

CLOUDS DECREASE MONDAY MORNING WITH A COOLER DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...AR

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-12 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    WEST AT 8 TO 12 MPH AFTER 1200.

RIDGE TOP WINDS AT 10000-10800 FT...WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    AROUND 35 MPH.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7000-8000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY 1100.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST AT 6 TO 10 MPH.

RIDGE TOP WINDS AT 10000-11000 FT...WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    30 TO 35 MPH.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 2000-3000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING VERY GOOD AFTER SUNSET...DECREASING
                    GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING. INCREASE IN CLOUDS
                    DURING THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT BEFORE 1500...HUMIDITY RISING
                    TO 25-30 PERCENT AFTER 1500.

20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST AT 6 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1200.  THEN WEST TO
                    NORTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 MPH AFTER 1200 WITH GUSTS
                    AROUND 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY WIND TO 25 MPH NEAR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

RIDGE TOP WINDS AT 10000-11000...WEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
                    30 MPH UNTIL 1200.  WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST BETWEEN
                    1200 AND 1400 AT SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 35 MPH.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.7 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6500-7500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH AROUND 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY 1200.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 30S.

MAX RH...65-75 PERCENT.

DOWNVALLEY WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
NORTHWEST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH HIGHER PEAKS AND EXPOSED RIDGE TOPS.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  HIGHS 50 TO 55.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH LOWER VALLEYS.
NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH HIGHER PEAKS AND EXPOSED RIDGE TOPS.

.TUESDAY...CLEAR. LOWS 41 TO 46.  HIGHS 57 TO 62.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH LOWER VALLEYS.
NORTHWEST WIND 20 TO 25 MPH HIGHER PEAKS AND EXPOSED RIDGE TOPS.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 40 TO 45.  HIGHS 56 TO 61.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 20 MPH HIGHER PEAKS AND EXPOSED RIDGE TOPS.

$$

FORECASTER...ROSS
REQUESTED BY...MIKE
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120914.ALPIN.01/RIW