FNUS75 KRIW 151056
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CYGNET  WILDFIRE...NPS YNP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
456 AM MDT SAT SEP 15 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2050 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND NOON AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........10 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    10-15 MPH BY AROUND NOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-34.
MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT WEST
                    TO NORTHWEST AROUND 3 AM. GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5
                    MPH BY AROUND 3 AM.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL BY 9 PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5
                    MPH BY AROUND 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT DECREASING TO FAIR BY 9 PM.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40 PERCENT)...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
                    (75 PERCENT) IN THE AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST TO
                    NORTH AROUND 10 MPH BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH...INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH
                    BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS AROUND 60. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...LAURA DOOLEY
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120914.CYGNE.01/RIW