FNUS75 KRIW 151203
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH BUFFALO...TETON DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
603 AM MDT SAT SEP 15 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2017 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
MDT TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IS
EXPECTED DUE TO VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY WIND AND HAINES
INDEX OF 6. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING
ON THE RIDGE TOPS BEFORE EASING A LITTLE BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BRING A WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE FIRE REGION BETWEEN
1100 AND 1300. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
1100 AND 1300 BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A
LITTLE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY UP ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER EXPOSED
RIDGE TOPS. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER OR NEAR THE FIRE
AFTER 1400 THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MIGHT EVEN SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS LOW AT 10000 FEET MSL BY SUNSET.

CLOUDS DECREASE MONDAY MORNING WITH A COOLER DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...AR

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL 1100.
                    WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 11 MPH AFTER 1100.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AT 12 TO 17 MPH UNTIL 1100.
                    WEST AT 17 TO 22 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
                    AFTER 1100.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7000-8000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH UNTIL 1100.
                    WEST AROUND 25 MPH AFTER 1100.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY 1300.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40 VALLEYS...40-45 RIDGE TOPS.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT VALLEYS...25-30 PERCENT RIDGE TOPS.

20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 11 MPH UNTIL SUNSET.
                    THEN BECOMING DOWNVALLEY AT 4 TO 7 MPH AFTER SUNSET.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT VALLEYS.
                    DECREASING TO 2000 FT AGL RIDGE TOPS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD...DECREASING TO FAIR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING. CLOUDS INCREASE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-21 PERCENT...HUMIDITY RISING AFTER 1400 TO
                    25 TO 30 PERCENT BY 1800.

20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
                    WIND SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH
                    BETWEEN 1100 AND 1300.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6000-7000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH AFTER 1200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO GOOD BY 1100...THEN TO VERY GOOD
                    BY 1400.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. THEN
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 30S.

MAX RH...60-70 PERCENT.

DOWNVALLEY WIND AT LESS THAN 10 MPH VALLEYS.
NORTHWEST WIND ON RIDGE TOPS AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 60-65.

WEST WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH VALLEYS.
NORTHWEST WIND ON RIDGE TOPS AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

.TUESDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE 60S.
WEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH VALLEYS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND RIDGE TOPS AROUND 15 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 36-42. HIGHS IN THE 60S.
WEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH VALLEYS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH RIDGE TOPS.

$$

FORECASTER...ROSS
REQUESTED BY...LOOKOUT
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120914.NORTH.01/RIW