FNUS75 KRIW 210900
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHALL CREEK FIRE...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
300 AM MDT FRI SEP 21 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2201 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WITH MILD DAYS...COOL NIGHTS AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND THE SKY GENERALLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DISTRICT. NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LIPSON

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-19 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 4-7 MPH. THEN UPSLOPE 4 TO 7 MPH AFTER 1000.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR A LOW 5...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000-9000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (26200-46700 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 1-3 MPH...THEN SOUTHEAST 3 TO 7 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE 1 TO 3 MOH THEN SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 14 TO 16 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2000-22300 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-19 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 4 TO 7 MPH UNTIL 0900 THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-4700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9900-10900 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (35700-78000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LIPSON
REQUESTED BY...ROD DYKEHOUSE
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120920.CHALL.01/RIW