FNUS75 KRIW 221159
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHALL CREEK FIRE...USFS BRIDGER-TETON NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
559 AM MDT SAT SEP 22 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2217 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL RESULT.
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LYNOTT

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-76.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-16 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6800-7800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 11 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (31700-60800 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........32-36 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800-7800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2100-3100 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 7 TO 9
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (10900-40300 KNOT-FT).

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
                    IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-70.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-19 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6400-7400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (24100-70100 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN
THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LYNOTT
REQUESTED BY...ROD DYKEHOUSE
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120921.CHALL.01/RIW