FNUS75 KRIW 231014
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALPINE LAKE...BIA WRA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
414 AM MDT SUN SEP 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2008 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THE PERSISTENT WARM AND VERY DRY PATTERN IS COMING TO AN END AS A
WEAK STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY SLOWLY PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS RELATIVELY WARM...WITH ANY SNOW CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE
10000 FEET FOR THE DURATION OF THE STORM. WINDS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS TODAY...BECOMING PREDOMINATELY DOMINATED BY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING.
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75 PERCENT) WITH VERY ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPERATURE.....58 AT 11000 FEET.
                    68 AT 8500 FEET.
                    73 AT 6500 FEET.

MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT ALL ELEVATIONS.

20 FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH BY 10 AM. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWER OR
                    THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
                    BY AROUND NOON. GUSTS TO 20 MPH. STRONGER WEST
                    WINDS AT THE NORTH ZONE RAWS THIS MORNING.

LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 2.

CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.

TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-10
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLE
                    ABOVE 10000 FEET.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-70 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 2200 FT AGL BY 9 PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY (85 PERCENT).
                    SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET.

MAX TEMPERATURE.....36 AT 11000 FEET.
                    52 AT 8500 FEET
                    65 AT 6500 FEET.

MIN HUMIDITY........50-60 PERCENT ABOVE 8500 FEET.
                    30-40 PERCENT AT OR BELOW 8500 FEET.

20 FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE 4-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    FROM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
                    ACTIVITY.

LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 2.

CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.

HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.

TRANSPORT WINDS.....MAINLY WEST AROUND 10 MPH...BUT WILL BE VARIABLE
                    AT TIMES.

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS 30-40. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 40 AT 10000
FT...AND AROUND 65 AT 6500 FT. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...BEAU KIDD
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120922.ALPIN.01/RIW