FNUS75 KGJT 231454
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MIDDLE ELK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
854 AM MDT SUN SEP 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0759 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CARRY MID TO HIGH BASED MOISTURE FOR
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VIRGA WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY VIRGA OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO
UTAH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING WESTERN COLORADO ON
TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.


.TODAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-67 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 3-6 MPH...INCREASING TO 9-14 MPH
                    AFTER 1200 WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED FROM VIRGA OR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS.
                    A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-47 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-50%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO AROUND 1000 FT AGL...BUT BETTER
                    MIXING NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...IC WILMORE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120923.MIDDL.01/GJT