FNUS75 KGJT 240333
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MIDDLE ELK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 PM MDT SUN SEP 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2020 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO WESTERN COLORADO. LIFT IS
BROAD AND UNFOCUSED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SO SHOWERS FAIRLY
SPOTTY AND LIGHT. LIFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHICS AND INSTABILITY...SHOWERS SHOULD
BE MORE FOCUSED NEAR THE TERRAIN AROUND THE FIRE. THE CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINS SHOULD INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERAL WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS STORM AND MAY GUST
NEAR 25 AT THE RIDGETOP LEVEL AS MIXING OCCURS BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE TERRAIN WINDS SHOULD DOMINATE...THOUGH PASSING SHOWERS
MAY BRING SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50 TO 55 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........NEAR 45%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE MORNING.
                    SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS. WINDS
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 17 MPH BY 1200
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    STRONGER GUST AND ERRATIC WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR THROUGH LATE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO EXCELLENT (195800 KNOT-FT) BY MID AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................5.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-85%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH IN THE EVENING...
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25. DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    WINDS RETURNING BY LATE EVENING...HOWEVER MAY
                    STAY MIXED NEAR SHOWERS. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD IN THE EARLY EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO
                    POOR AROUND SUNSET.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120923.MIDDL.02/GJT