FNUS75 KRIW 241041
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHALL CREEK FIRE...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
441 AM MDT MON SEP 24 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2207 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITY...AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WILDFIRE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS A STORM
SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. A WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WARM...WITH ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINING RAIN AT THE WILDFIRE SITE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85+ PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH...BUT WILL
                    BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 5-10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH
                    AROUND 3 PM.
LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5-10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH
                    AROUND 3 PM. WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85+ PERCENT) WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......MAINLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH 3-6 MPH...BUT WILL
                    BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED NEAR
                    ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    TO EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 9 PM...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    TO EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85+ PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE AROUND
                    5 MPH BY NOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE AROUND
                    5 MPH BY NOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...ROD DYKEHOUSE
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120923.CHALL.01/RIW