FNUS75 KGJT 250334
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MIDDLE ELK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
934 PM MDT MON SEP 24 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2116 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE MOVING TO NEAR THE
CENTRAL COLORADO AND UTAH BORDER ON TUESDAY WHERE IT WILL STALL AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A MOIST FEED ON SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS NEAR THE FIRE SITE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINS OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH LOOK TO BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. LIGHT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AWAY
FROM SHOWERS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS AND AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 12 MPH.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH BY EARLY
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR IN THE MORNING BECOMING FAIR BY EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35 TO 40 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-90%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH MID EVENING
                    THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 THROUGH 2100 THEN 1.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120924.MIDDL.02/GJT