FNUS76 KSEW 260055
FWSSEW

SPOT FORECAST FOR MATHENY CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
555 PM PDT TUE SEP 25 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 PDT ON SEPTEMBER 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SEATTLE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TRENDING LOWER. A VERY WEAK SMALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS FRONT WILL BE ABOUT AS STRONG AS THE FRONT THAT CROSSED THE
AREA ON MONDAY...SO LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED. A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND FOR CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. A LARGE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY DEEPEN OVER THE REGION
NEXT TUESDAY.

 FORECAST FOR 20 FOOT WIND SPEED (VALLEYS AND RIDGE TOPS) ARE 10
 MINUTE AVERAGES REFLECTING RAWS WINDS.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING SUNNY. AREAS OF FOG
                    IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................0%
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......EAST WINDS 3 TO 4 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    4 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 3 TO 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 3 TO 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 3 TO 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 3 TO 4 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

8 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK...EXTENDED MODELS INDICATING A COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WOULD GIVE THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN THE PAST WEEK OR SO THE EXTENDED
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE 8 TO 10 DAYS OUT RANGE
BUT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT THE SYSTEMS HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY
SO CONFIDENCE OUT BEYOND 7 DAYS NOT VERY HIGH.

$$
FORECASTER...FELTON
REQUESTED BY...KELVIN THOMPSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120926.MATHE.01/SEW