FNUS75 KBOU 281832 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR UPPER BEAR TREE FIRE...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1232 PM MDT FRI SEP 28 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOLAR HEATING. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY BUILD INTO WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE BURN SITE WILL BE AFTER 2:30 PM MDT. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOST OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. THEN CLEARING AFTER DARK WITH THE SET UP OF THE TYPICAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-50%) UNTIL 1400...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-59. MIN HUMIDITY........38-43%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1600...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 7 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6400-7400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2000...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1900. MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41. MAX HUMIDITY........79-83%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-67. MIN HUMIDITY........35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 6-11 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHEAST 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 9800-10800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR UPPER BEAR TREEFIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/28-12 54 20 4 57 49 E 6 6 3 3 NW13 7279 W 3 25262 P 09/28-13 54 20 4 58 48 E 7 7 3 3 NW14 7355 W 5 29663 P 09/28-14 54 20 4 58 49 E 7 7 3 3 NW15 7431 W 6 34064 P 09/28-15 71 32 11 58 50 E 8 13 3 4 W16 7508 SW 6 38465 P 09/28-16 71 32 11 58 50 E 8 14 3 4 W17 6778 SW 6 33650 P 09/28-17 71 32 11 57 51 E 8 14 3 4 W18 6048 SW 6 28835 P 09/28-18 71 10 2 55 52 E 8 13 3 2 W18 5319 SW 6 24020 P 09/28-19 71 10 2 54 56 SE 7 7 3 2 W18 3665 SW 6 16723 P 09/28-20 71 10 2 52 60 S 6 6 3 2 W20 2012 S 6 9425 P 09/28-21 71 10 2 50 64 S 5 5 3 2 W20 359 S 7 2128 P 09/28-22 30 4 1 49 64 S 5 5 3 1 W18 313 S 7 1935 P 09/28-23 30 4 1 48 64 SW 5 5 3 1 W16 268 SW 8 1741 P 09/29-00 30 4 1 46 64 SW 6 6 3 1 W15 223 SW 8 1548 P 09/29-01 30 4 1 45 65 SW 7 7 3 1 W14 197 SW 8 1357 P 09/29-02 15 4 1 43 67 W 7 7 3 1 W13 172 W 8 1166 P 09/29-03 15 4 1 41 69 W 8 13 3 1 W12 147 W 8 976 P 09/29-04 15 4 1 39 74 W 9 15 3 1 W10 147 W 8 1034 P 09/29-05 15 4 1 38 79 W10 16 2 1 W10 147 W 8 1093 P 09/29-06 15 0 0 39 79 W10 16 2 1 W10 147 W 9 1152 P 09/29-07 15 0 0 39 77 W 9 15 2 1 W10 1271 W 8 8482 P 09/29-08 15 0 0 43 67 W 7 7 2 1 W10 2396 NW 8 15811 P 09/29-09 13 0 0 51 50 W 6 6 2 1 W 9 3521 NW 8 23141 P 09/29-10 13 0 0 56 42 NW 6 6 2 1 W 9 5817 NW 8 38844 P 09/29-11 13 0 0 59 39 N 6 6 2 1 W10 7602 NW 8 51883 F 09/29-12 58 20 4 61 37 N 6 6 2 3 W12 9387 NW 8 64922 G 09/29-13 58 20 4 62 36 N 6 6 2 3 W15 9924 NW 8 72780 G 09/29-14 58 20 4 63 35 NE 7 7 2 3 W17 10461 NW 9 80637 G 09/29-15 58 20 4 64 35 NE 7 7 2 3 W20 10999 NW 9 88495 G 09/29-16 58 20 4 63 36 NE 7 7 2 3 W20 10465 NW 9 87471 G 09/29-17 58 20 4 62 39 NE 7 7 2 3 NW18 9931 NW10 86448 G 09/29-18 62 20 4 60 41 NE 6 6 2 3 NW18 9397 NW10 85424 G 09/29-19 62 20 4 56 47 N 5 5 2 3 NW17 7375 NW12 68552 G 09/29-20 62 20 4 53 52 NW 5 5 2 3 NW17 5353 NW12 51679 F 09/29-21 62 0 0 51 54 NW 5 5 2 1 NW17 3331 NW12 34807 P 09/29-22 62 0 0 49 57 W 6 6 2 1 NW16 2333 NW12 24174 P 09/29-23 62 0 0 48 58 W 7 7 2 1 NW16 1335 NW10 13541 P 09/30-00 54 0 0 46 62 W 8 8 2 1 NW15 337 NW10 2908 P 09/30-01 54 0 0 44 64 W 9 9 2 1 NW14 300 NW10 2742 P 09/30-02 54 0 0 43 66 W10 10 2 1 N13 262 NW12 2576 P 09/30-03 54 0 0 42 68 W12 18 2 1 N12 224 NW13 2410 P 09/30-04 54 0 0 41 68 W12 18 2 1 N12 218 NW12 2270 P 09/30-05 54 0 0 41 68 W12 12 2 1 N13 211 NW12 2130 P 09/30-06 40 0 0 41 69 W10 10 2 1 N14 205 NW12 1991 P 09/30-07 40 0 0 42 65 W 9 9 2 1 N14 2004 NW12 23675 P 09/30-08 40 0 0 45 58 NW 7 7 2 1 N15 3803 N13 45360 F 09/30-09 40 0 0 50 49 NW 6 6 2 1 N15 5602 N14 67045 G 09/30-10 40 0 0 55 42 NW 7 7 2 1 N14 7045 N13 78394 G 09/30-11 40 0 0 57 39 N 8 8 2 1 N13 8489 N13 89744 G 09/30-12 53 10 2 59 37 NE 9 9 2 2 N13 9932 N12 101093 V 09/30-13 53 10 2 60 36 NE 9 9 2 2 N13 10112 N12 100580 V 09/30-14 53 10 2 61 36 NE 9 9 2 2 N14 10291 N12 100066 V 09/30-15 53 10 2 62 35 NE 9 9 2 2 N16 10471 N12 99552 G 09/30-16 53 10 2 61 37 NE 8 8 2 2 N17 9615 N10 90454 G 09/30-17 53 10 2 60 40 E 6 6 2 2 N20 8759 N10 81356 G 09/30-18 32 0 0 58 42 E 5 5 2 1 N21 7904 N10 72258 G 09/30-19 32 0 0 54 48 SE 3 3 2 1 N22 5489 NW 8 48789 F 09/30-20 32 0 0 51 54 S 3 3 2 1 N23 3075 NW 6 25321 P 09/30-21 32 0 0 49 56 W 3 3 2 1 N24 660 NW 3 1852 P 09/30-22 32 0 0 47 60 W 3 3 2 1 N25 512 W 3 1518 P 09/30-23 32 0 0 46 61 W 3 3 2 1 N25 365 W 5 1183 P 10/01-00 26 0 0 44 65 W 5 5 2 1 N25 217 W 5 849 P 10/01-01 26 0 0 42 67 W 6 6 2 1 N24 201 W 6 892 P 10/01-02 26 0 0 41 68 W 6 6 2 1 N24 185 W 6 935 P 10/01-03 26 0 0 40 69 W 7 7 2 1 N23 169 W 7 978 P 10/01-04 26 0 0 40 70 W 7 7 2 1 N23 162 W 7 944 P 10/01-05 26 0 0 39 70 W 7 7 2 1 N23 156 W 7 909 P 10/01-06 10 2 0 39 71 W 7 7 2 1 N23 149 W 7 875 P 10/01-07 10 2 0 40 67 W 6 6 1 10/01-08 10 2 0 45 57 NW 6 6 1 10/01-09 10 2 0 51 46 NW 5 5 1 10/01-10 10 2 0 56 38 NW 5 5 1 10/01-11 10 2 0 59 34 N 3 3 1 10/01-12 14 2 0 61 32 N 3 3 1 10/01-13 14 2 0 63 31 N 3 3 1 10/01-14 14 2 0 63 30 N 2 2 1 10/01-15 14 2 0 64 30 N 2 2 1 10/01-16 14 2 0 63 31 N 2 2 1 10/01-17 14 2 0 62 32 NE 2 2 1 10/01-18 14 2 0 61 34 NE 2 2 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120928.UPPER.01/BOU