FNUS75 KRIW 021155
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALPINE LAKE...BIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
555 AM MDT TUE OCT 2 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1841 MDT ON OCTOBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
MDT TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND MILD TODAY WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
DRY AIR HAS ALREADY WORKED INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATION OBSERVATION
SITES. THE WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AND STRONG
WIND WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EXPOSED RIDGE TOPS.
THE NORTH ZONE PCS PORTABLE RAWS WILL BLOW 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS SHOULD BE REALIZED TODAY.
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WIND
SHIFTING TO UPSLOPE OR UPVALLEY AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS AGAINST
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER 1500.
MUCH COLDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...AR

THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON CONDITIONS AT 7570 FEET WHERE WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN.

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY AT 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 1000.
                    WEST WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    AFTER 1000.
                    WEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
                    AFTER 1200.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
                    UNTIL 1200.
                    WEST AT 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH
                    AFTER 1200.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6000-7000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING.
                    WEST AT 25 TO 30 MPH AFTER 1200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD BY 1200...THEN EXCELLENT
                    AFTER 1200.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
MAX HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AT 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 3000-4000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD...BECOMING GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER 1500.

MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50...FALLING INTO THE 30S AFTER 1200.

MIN HUMIDITY........35-40...HUMIDITY RISING IN THE AFTERNOON.

20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    UNTIL 1200.
                    WIND BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH BETWEEN 1200 AND 1400.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH UNTIL
                    1200.
                    WIND BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH BETWEEN 1300 AND 1500.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.16 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL IN THE MORNING.
                    DECREASING TO 2000-3000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AT 20 MPH...BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
                    AT 15 MPH AFTER 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN BECOMING FAIR BY 1500...
                    THEN POOR BY 1800.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
LOWS 18 TO 23. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET.

.THURSDAY...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 30S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 15 TO 20.
HIGHS 25 TO 30.  WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE TEENS. HIGHS IN THE
30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ROSS
REQUESTED BY...CAL ANACKER
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20121001.ALPIN.01/RIW