FNUS75 KRIW 020150
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH BUFFALO FIRE...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
750 PM MDT MON OCT 1 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1916 MDT ON OCTOBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A WEATHER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
DISTRICT FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
DROPPING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE AFTER 10 AM ON WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...C.BAKER

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15
                    TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AROUND NOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200-6200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 26 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (40700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (107600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32.
MAX HUMIDITY........67-70 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-5900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2700-3700 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 23 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 8
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (104300 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (36100 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) BY 10 AM. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
                    OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING NORTH 10 TO
                    15 MPH AROUND 11 AM...GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 14 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR IN THE MORNING THEN GOOD (36300-71600 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS
AROUND 20. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...C.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...JAMIE TYSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20121001.NORTH.01/RIW