FNUS73 KAPX 012005 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR OLD INDIAN...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 405 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON OCTOBER 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION....HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY...AND EVENTUALLY ALLOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES TO WORK INTO MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL PERSIST AT THE BURN SITE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME LIGHT RAIN PUSHES INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND AT THE BURN SITE AT IGNITION TIME TUESDAY MORNING. BUT WINDS WILL TEND TO TURN MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY DUE TO LAKE BREEZE FORMATION OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 46. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1100 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(100). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........52 57 62 63 63 64 65 67 68 66 64 62 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............59 57 55 53 53 52 51 51 50 50 50 50 RH..............69 77 83 89 89 93 96 93 96 96 100 100 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW S S S S S SW SW SW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........49 AT IGNITION...MAX 65. RH..................96 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 56 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH BY LATE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 1 TO 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 1 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 900-1400 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0) AT IGNITION. MAX...POOR (100). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........59 54 48 42 35 32 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............50 49 54 59 63 65 RH..............100 96 90 78 65 56 20 FT WIND......N 3 N 5 N 6 N 7 N 7 N 8 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4 SMOKE DISP......0 0 0 0 0 100 $$ FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM REQUESTED BY...NATE ORSBURN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20121002.OLDIN.02/APX