FNUS75 KTFX 021138
FWSTFX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELBOW PASS COMPLEX...GREAT FALLS DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
538 AM MDT TUE OCT 2 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0518 MDT ON OCTOBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FIRE AREA FROM THE NORTH
NORTHWEST TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH
LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLAY UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
REMAIN PRETTY GUSTY. WETTING PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER THE FIRE AREA AS OF NOW LOOKS
FAIRLY GOOD. MOSTLY SNOW IS LIKELY AT LOCATIONS OVER ABOUT 4000
FEET WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT AND BELOW THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................25 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS DECREASE TO 15 TO
                    20 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WIND......WEST WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH.
LAL.................1
HAINES..............3 LOW
INVERSION...........INVERSION DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN AND SNOW MIX LIKELY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN MOSTLY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................70 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....23-28.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH AROUND 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WIND......WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH.
LAL.................1
HAINES..............2 VERY LOW
INVERSION...........INVERSION DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN
                    LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WIND......NORTH WINDS AROUND 25 MPH.
LAL.................1
HAINES..............2 VERY LOW
INVERSION...........INVERSION DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

$$
FORECASTER...GUSTAFSON
REQUESTED BY...GREAT FALLS DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20121002.ELBOW.01/TFX