FNUS75 KRIW 040053
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH BUFFALO FIRE...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
653 PM MDT WED OCT 3 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1838 MDT ON OCTOBER 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CANADIAN COLD FRONT SWEPT SOUTH TODAY.  COLDER AIR WITH
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE OVER THE FIRE THURSDAY.  A SECOND
CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE FIRE THURSDAY EVENING.
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE FIRE AREA SHOULD BE ON OR
NEAR THE WEST EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...C.BAKER

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-43.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800-6800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 14 TO
                    16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR IN THE MORNING THEN GOOD (26400-74700 KNOT-FT).

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
                    SNOW AFTER 10 PM.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....21-24.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE
                    IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000-7000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3100-4100 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR BY 10 PM (23000 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
                    THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-39.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-39 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6300-7300 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR IN THE MORNING THEN GOOD (26100-66100 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 16. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS AROUND 40. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.COLUMBUS DAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...C.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...JAMIE TYSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20121003.NORTH.01/RIW