FNUS75 KABQ 041507
FWSABQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST THUNDERBIRD RX...FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
907 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOOR STEP OF THE FIRE AREA WHEN
YOU GET THIS SPOT FORECAST. THIS IS A SHALLOW FRONTAL PUSH SO IT
SHOULDNT TAKE LONG FOR THE WINDS TO COME BACK OUT OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION IF THEY CHANGE AT ALL THIS MORNING. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND PROVIDE SOME GUSTIER
BREEZES ALONG THE LEE OF THE MANZANOS. WINDS WILL DIE OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY AS THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE HIGH RIDGES TONIGHT BUT TOUGH
TO SAY WHERE ANY HIGHER MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS CAN BE GENERATED AT
THE BURN SITE OVERNIGHT BUT THAT POSSIBILITY WILL BE THERE. THE
WINDS ALOFT WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY SO LOOK FOR SOME CONTINUED BREEZES ON FRIDAY. VENTILATION
DOESNT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS IT CONCERNS MAXIMUM RATES.

FOR PLANNED IGNITION TIME OF 0910 MDT 10/4/12
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......MOSTLY SUNNY.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......0 PERCENT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MAX 69-73.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MIN 18-23 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........POSSIBILITY OF SWITCHING WINDS EARLY WITH
                       BATTLING WEST/NORTHWEST WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST
                       5 TO 8 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEN
                       WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 1200 TO 1400
                       WITH INCREASING SPEEDS TO 9 TO 14 MPH.
                       GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH BETWEEN 1500 TO 1800.
   MIXING HEIGHT.......9500 FT AGL.
   TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST 19 KNOTS.
   MAX VENT RATE.......EXCELLENT/180101 KNOT-FT AT 1700 LOCAL.
   VENTILATION TREND...FAIR/40383 KNOT-FT AROUND MID-MORNING
                       BECOMING EXCELLENT/180101 KNOT-FT BY
                       MID-AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......MOSTLY CLEAR.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......0 PERCENT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MIN 46-50.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MAX 35-40 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING EARLY
                       THEN LOWERING TO 6 TO 10 MPH AND WESTERLY
                       BETWEEN 1900 TO 2100.
   VENTILATION TREND...EXCELLENT/162000 KNOT-FT BY EARLY-EVENING
                       BECOMING POOR/0 KNOT-FT BY LATE-EVENING.

FOR FRIDAY
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......MOSTLY SUNNY.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......0 PERCENT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MAX 69-73.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MIN 16-21 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS 10 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25
                       MPH.
   MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL.
   TRANSPORT WIND......WEST 19 KNOTS.
   MAX VENT RATE.......EXCELLENT/172956 KNOT-FT AT 1600 LOCAL.
   VENTILATION TREND...FAIR/56731 KNOT-FT AROUND MID-MORNING
                       BECOMING EXCELLENT/172956 KNOT-FT BY
                       MID-AFTERNOON.

FORECASTS FOR WINDS ARE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AND MUST BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDING TO FUEL TYPE AND SHELTERING TO GET EYE LEVEL WIND SPEED.

FORECASTER...50

$$

REQUESTED BY...JOE BRUNER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121004.EASTT.01/ABQ