FNUS73 KAPX 042034 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR OLD INDAIN...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 434 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON OCTOBER 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY EAST THIS EVENING... KICKING OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS IT DOES SO. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOP...EXCEEDING 35 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER FRIDAY...AND COUPLED WITH SOME MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL KEEP RH VALUES SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...WITH READINGS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 50 PERCENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45. RH..................MAX 76 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 19 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH INCREASING TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 TO 35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600-4100 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN GOOD(400). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........80 77 77 66 43 31 27 19 14 15 17 17 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW TEMP............65 62 61 60 58 57 55 53 52 51 50 49 RH..............58 62 62 62 62 62 66 71 74 74 74 74 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW W W W W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..11 12 13 14 14 15 16 17 18 18 18 18 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 30 30 30 30 30 30 35 35 35 35 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 SMOKE DISP......400 700 900 110013001400140014001300130013001300 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........45 AT IGNITION...MAX 52. RH..................70 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 19 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 18 TO 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 TO 37 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3300-4900 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1100) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (2200). TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........18 21 22 23 25 27 29 31 32 34 37 39 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............47 45 45 46 47 48 49 49 50 51 51 51 RH..............74 76 70 68 65 63 58 58 54 52 52 52 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..18 18 18 18 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 17 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 SMOKE DISP......120012001100110011001100110012001300160019002200 $$ FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH REQUESTED BY...NATE ORSBURN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20121005.OLDIN.01/APX