FNUS75 KGJT 052149
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHAININGS...HOTCHKISS FIRE/BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
349 PM MDT FRI OCT 5 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1530 MDT ON OCTOBER 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS...

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG MIXING IN THIS VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNSET...WHEN WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE. THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH NEAR
RIDGETOPS...SLIGHTLY LESS ON EAST ASPECTS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
SLOW TO RECOVER THIS EVENING REACHING A MAX NEAR 60 PERCENT BY
MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT DROPPING
HIGHS BY ABOUT 8 DEGREES. HUMIDITY READINGS MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS
AGAIN ON SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10
MPH.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72 TO 76 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........6-11%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38 TO 43 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........50 TO 60% BY SUNRISE.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH THROUGH 1900 THEN DECREASING TO 5 TO 12 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH NEAR SUNSET.
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER
                    BY MID EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN
                    DECREASING TO POOR AFTER BY LATE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL THROUGH EARLY EVENING DECREASING TO
                    LESS THAN 1500 FT AGL BY MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 27 MPH THROUGH SUNSET...THEN TERRAIN DRIVEN
                    WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-19%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY AT 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    UPVALLEY AT 5 TO 8 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING TO GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL THROUGH MID MORNING THEN INCREASING
                    TO 7800 FT AGL BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...DOUG FRITZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20121005.CHAIN.01/GJT