FNUS75 KBOU 100048 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 647 PM MDT TUE OCT 9 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...REDID PREVIOUS SPOT BASED ON MORE EXACT COORDINATES. KEEP IN MIND THE CLOSEST OBSERVATON SITE IS 5 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE FIRE SO WIND FORECAST MAY NOT BE EXACT NEAR THE FIRE DUE TO TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH NEAR 8500 FEET BUT MORE WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH ABOVE 9500 OVER THE RIDGE TOPS. THERE WILL BE NO CHANCE OF PRECIP HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 2400 BELOW 8500 FEET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MAX OUT AROUND 80% OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL DRY AND WARMER. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE RIDGES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....28. MAX HUMIDITY........80%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 5-10 MPH NEAR 8500 FEET...WEST WINDS 10-15 MPH AROUND 9500 FEET. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-24 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN AROUND 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2400...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....56. MIN HUMIDITY........26%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE RIDGE TOPS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-24 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 25-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 6400-7400 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....34. MAX HUMIDITY........57%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 0500. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....58. MIN HUMIDITY........28%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 8000-9000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0600. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERNLAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/09-18 11 0 0 50 18 W13 17 2 1 NW49 5652 W30 147144 V 10/09-19 11 0 0 45 22 W10 10 2 1 NW46 4199 W25 103948 V 10/09-20 11 0 0 41 28 W 7 7 2 1 NW44 2746 W21 60752 G 10/09-21 8 0 0 37 34 W 6 6 2 1 NW41 1292 W16 17556 P 10/09-22 8 0 0 36 38 W 6 6 2 1 NW41 953 W14 12625 P 10/09-23 8 0 0 34 44 W 7 7 2 1 NW41 613 W13 7695 P 10/10-00 18 0 0 34 48 W 8 8 2 1 NW41 273 W12 2765 P 10/10-01 18 0 0 33 49 W 8 8 2 1 NW41 250 W13 2612 P 10/10-02 18 0 0 32 50 W 9 9 2 1 NW41 227 W13 2459 P 10/10-03 18 0 0 30 51 W 9 9 2 1 NW40 204 W13 2306 P 10/10-04 18 0 0 30 52 W 9 9 2 1 W39 195 W13 2232 P 10/10-05 18 0 0 30 52 W 9 9 3 1 W37 185 W14 2158 P 10/10-06 18 0 0 29 54 W 9 9 3 1 W35 175 W14 2084 P 10/10-07 18 0 0 28 58 W 9 9 3 1 W32 309 W15 4246 P 10/10-08 18 0 0 29 61 W10 10 3 1 W31 443 W16 6408 P 10/10-09 20 0 0 32 56 W12 16 3 1 W28 577 W17 8571 P 10/10-10 20 0 0 39 45 W13 18 3 1 W28 2374 W23 65405 G 10/10-11 20 0 0 46 35 W15 21 2 1 W29 4172 W29 122240 V 10/10-12 39 0 0 52 29 W16 23 2 1 W31 5969 W35 179076 E 10/10-13 39 0 0 53 28 W17 24 2 1 W35 6658 W33 188202 E 10/10-14 39 0 0 56 26 W17 24 2 1 W39 7346 W31 197328 E 10/10-15 39 0 0 55 28 W17 24 2 1 W43 8034 W30 206454 E 10/10-16 39 0 0 55 28 W16 23 2 1 W43 7006 W28 170495 E 10/10-17 39 0 0 53 32 W15 22 2 1 W43 5978 W25 134537 V 10/10-18 37 0 0 52 33 W14 20 2 1 W38 6035 W25 133498 V 10/10-19 37 0 0 48 38 W13 17 2 1 W37 4435 W23 95429 G 10/10-20 37 0 0 45 42 W10 10 2 1 W37 2835 W21 57361 F 10/10-21 37 0 0 43 44 W 9 9 2 1 W37 1234 W18 19292 P 10/10-22 37 0 0 42 46 W 9 9 2 1 W38 928 W17 14195 P 10/10-23 37 0 0 41 47 W 9 9 2 1 W40 622 W16 9098 P 10/11-00 31 0 0 39 49 W 9 9 2 1 W41 315 W15 4001 P 10/11-01 31 0 0 38 50 W 9 9 2 1 W43 292 W15 3738 P 10/11-02 31 0 0 37 52 W10 10 2 1 W41 269 W15 3475 P 10/11-03 31 0 0 37 54 W10 10 2 1 W41 246 W15 3213 P 10/11-04 31 0 0 36 55 W10 10 2 1 W43 237 W14 2949 P 10/11-05 31 0 0 35 56 W10 10 2 1 W43 228 W14 2684 P 10/11-06 31 0 0 35 57 W 9 9 2 1 W43 219 W13 2420 P 10/11-07 31 0 0 36 56 W 8 8 2 1 W41 1626 W16 31619 P 10/11-08 31 0 0 40 50 W 7 7 2 1 W39 3033 W20 60818 G 10/11-09 31 0 0 46 41 W 7 7 2 1 W38 4439 W23 90017 G 10/11-10 31 0 0 51 34 W 8 8 2 1 W37 5633 W22 103505 V 10/11-11 31 0 0 54 31 W 9 9 2 1 W36 6826 W21 116992 V 10/11-12 37 0 0 56 29 W 9 9 2 1 W36 8019 W18 130479 V 10/11-13 37 0 0 57 28 W 8 8 2 1 W32 8616 W16 122466 V 10/11-14 37 0 0 57 29 SW 7 7 2 1 W30 9212 W15 114452 V 10/11-15 37 0 0 58 29 SW 6 6 2 1 W29 9809 W13 106438 V 10/11-16 37 0 0 57 30 S 5 5 2 1 W31 8503 SW12 86132 G 10/11-17 37 0 0 55 32 S 3 3 2 1 SW35 7198 SW10 65825 G 10/11-18 17 0 0 53 35 S 3 3 2 1 SW37 5892 SW 9 45519 F 10/11-19 17 0 0 48 42 SE 5 5 2 1 SW36 4195 S10 33246 P 10/11-20 17 0 0 45 49 SE 7 7 2 1 SW33 2498 SE12 20974 P 10/11-21 17 0 0 43 53 E 8 8 2 1 SW31 801 SE13 8702 P 10/11-22 17 0 0 41 57 SE 8 8 2 1 SW29 737 SE13 7881 P 10/11-23 17 0 0 39 59 SE 7 7 2 1 SW26 673 SE12 7061 P 10/12-00 35 0 0 38 61 SE 6 6 2 1 SW24 609 SE12 6240 P 10/12-01 35 0 0 37 63 SE 5 5 2 1 SW21 473 S10 4643 P 10/12-02 35 0 0 35 64 S 5 5 2 1 S17 337 S 9 3045 P 10/12-03 35 0 0 35 65 S 5 5 2 1 S16 201 S 8 1448 P 10/12-04 35 0 0 34 65 SW 5 5 2 1 S21 177 S 8 1271 P 10/12-05 35 0 0 33 64 SW 6 6 2 1 SW28 153 SW 8 1094 P 10/12-06 60 30 9 33 65 SW 6 6 2 2 SW35 129 SW 8 916 P 10/12-07 60 30 9 34 61 SW 6 6 2 2 SW36 208 SW 9 1645 P 10/12-08 60 30 9 37 56 S 5 5 2 2 SW37 286 S 9 2374 P 10/12-09 60 30 9 42 47 S 5 5 2 2 S36 364 S10 3102 P 10/12-10 60 30 9 47 41 S 6 6 2 2 S33 2090 S15 43874 F 10/12-11 60 30 9 49 40 S 8 8 2 2 S31 3816 S21 84646 G 10/12-12 74 50 26 51 39 SE 9 9 2 2 S32 5542 S26 125418 V 10/12-13 74 50 26 52 39 SE10 10 2 2 S45 5701 S26 133594 V 10/12-14 74 50 26 52 40 S10 10 2 2 S59 5861 S28 141770 V 10/12-15 74 50 26 53 41 S10 10 2 2 S66 6021 S29 149946 V 10/12-16 74 50 26 52 44 S 9 9 2 2 S59 6130 SW28 144978 V 10/12-17 74 50 26 51 48 S 7 7 2 2 S43 6239 SW25 140011 V 10/12-18 91 51 27 49 52 SW 6 6 2 2 S23 6348 SW24 135044 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FORT COLLINS DISPTCH REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121009.FERNL.02/BOU