FNUS73 KEAX 091300 FWSEAX SPOT FORECAST FOR UNIT 9...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 800 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CDT ON OCTOBER 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST...BETWEEN OMAHA AND PLATTSMOUTH NEBRASKA...THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BURN AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT OVERALL WILL TEND TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES THE BURN AREA. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FULLY FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM CDT. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN ANY AREA THAT ACTUALLY SEE RAINFALL. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....59 AT IGNITION...MAX 62. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 41 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 14 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4000-4700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 12 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 24 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........74 76 79 80 68 44 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............59 60 61 62 59 56 RH..............50 46 44 41 43 47 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..10 14 17 18 17 14 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 25 25 25 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 30. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 76 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 6 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........32 30 25 20 15 10 7 7 6 6 6 5 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............50 46 43 41 39 38 36 36 35 34 33 32 RH..............55 62 65 67 67 68 68 70 71 72 74 76 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W 20 FT WIND SPD..12 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 63. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 25 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5700-6400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 13 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............31 36 41 46 51 55 58 60 62 63 61 59 RH..............77 63 52 43 35 30 27 26 25 25 27 30 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W SW SW S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 $$ FORECASTER...BOWMAN REQUESTED BY...SAM VANOURNEY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20121009.UNIT9.01/EAX