FNUS74 KEPZ 092038
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR FT STANTON FEATHER CAVE RX...NM-ADC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
238 PM MDT TUE OCT 9 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1435 MDT ON OCTOBER 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...NOTE TWO CHANGES FOR (1) TONIGHT AND AND (2) FOR FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 3 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 22 MPH.

***ONE ADDED CHANGE TO NOTE FOR TONIGHT***
A MINOR DRY BACKDOOR COOL FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL.

NOTE***
AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OUT OF THE AREA LATER FRIDAY ...STRONG TO GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. AT THIS TIME MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST
FROM 15% TO 20%...HOWEVER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH RED FLAG FRIDAY AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING.

.REST OF THE AFTERNOON...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-81.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........W TO NW 8 TO 13 MPH GUST 22 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-4300 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 8700-9500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 16 KNOTS. EXCELLENT


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 6 TO 8 MPH.
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH WITH
                    ISOLD GUST 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 22 MPH PSBL WEST SLOPES
                    AND CANYONS/
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 8 KNOTS.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST TO NORTHEAST 4 TO 9 MPH MORNING THEN SOUTHEAST
                    5-10 MPH BY MIDDAY THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST  7 TO 12 MPH
                    BY AFTERNOON..
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8200-10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 8 KNOTS.

$$
FORECASTER...NOVLAN
REQUESTED BY...NM-ADC
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121009.FTSTA.02/EPZ