FNUS75 KBOU 101951 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 150 PM MDT WED OCT 10 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY WITH NO SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL APPROACH COLORADO ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .THIS AFTERNOON... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....56 ABOVE 10000 FEET...60-65 BELOW. MIN HUMIDITY........25% ABOVE 10000 FEET....15-20% BELOW 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 13-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7000-8000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....25 ABOVE 1000 FEET...25-30 BELOW. MAX HUMIDITY........60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 11-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 0500. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....55. MIN HUMIDITY........33%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 6200-7200 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0600. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .SATURDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERNLAKEFIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/10-13 41 0 0 54 27 W16 25 2 1 W36 6832 W37 214660 E 10/10-14 41 0 0 55 26 W17 26 2 1 W39 7669 W35 231830 E 10/10-15 41 0 0 56 25 W17 28 2 1 W41 8506 W33 248999 E 10/10-16 41 0 0 55 27 W16 25 2 1 W43 7660 W31 210518 E 10/10-17 41 0 0 54 29 W14 23 2 1 W44 6814 W29 172036 E 10/10-18 52 0 0 52 31 W13 21 2 1 W44 5968 W25 133554 V 10/10-19 52 0 0 48 36 W13 20 2 1 W43 4359 W23 94892 G 10/10-20 52 0 0 45 41 W13 20 2 1 W43 2751 W21 56229 F 10/10-21 52 0 0 43 43 W13 21 2 1 W41 1143 W17 17566 P 10/10-22 52 0 0 41 46 W13 20 2 1 W41 872 W17 13351 P 10/10-23 52 0 0 40 49 W12 18 2 1 W41 601 W17 9135 P 10/11-00 37 0 0 39 52 W12 18 2 1 W43 330 W17 4919 P 10/11-01 37 0 0 38 55 W12 20 2 1 W43 303 W17 4559 P 10/11-02 37 0 0 37 58 W13 20 2 1 W44 276 W17 4199 P 10/11-03 37 0 0 36 60 W13 21 2 1 W44 250 W17 3839 P 10/11-04 37 0 0 35 60 W13 20 2 1 W45 251 W16 3607 P 10/11-05 37 0 0 35 60 W12 18 2 1 W45 252 W15 3376 P 10/11-06 47 0 0 35 57 W10 16 2 1 W44 253 W14 3144 P 10/11-07 47 0 0 36 57 W 9 15 2 1 W44 482 W14 5902 P 10/11-08 47 0 0 37 57 W 9 14 2 1 W43 712 W14 8661 P 10/11-09 47 0 0 39 55 W 8 13 2 1 W43 942 W14 11419 P 10/11-10 47 0 0 43 48 W 8 8 2 1 W40 2786 W15 38381 P 10/11-11 47 0 0 47 40 W 7 7 2 1 W38 4629 W16 65342 G 10/11-12 48 4 1 51 35 W 7 7 2 1 W36 6473 W16 92303 G 10/11-13 48 4 1 53 33 W 7 7 2 1 W33 6863 W15 84641 G 10/11-14 48 4 1 54 33 SW 7 7 2 1 W30 7254 W13 76979 G 10/11-15 48 4 1 54 33 SW 7 7 2 1 W28 7644 W10 69317 G 10/11-16 48 4 1 54 34 SW 6 6 2 1 W26 6906 W12 65198 G 10/11-17 48 4 1 53 36 S 5 5 2 1 W26 6167 SW12 61078 G 10/11-18 37 4 1 51 39 S 5 5 2 1 W28 5429 SW12 56959 F 10/11-19 37 4 1 48 44 S 6 6 2 1 W30 3905 S12 40557 F 10/11-20 37 4 1 44 51 SE 6 6 2 1 SW32 2382 S12 24154 P 10/11-21 37 4 1 41 58 SE 7 7 2 1 SW33 858 S10 7751 P 10/11-22 37 4 1 39 63 SE 7 7 2 1 SW32 703 S10 6190 P 10/11-23 37 4 1 37 65 SE 6 6 2 1 SW29 548 S 9 4628 P 10/12-00 48 8 2 36 66 SE 5 5 2 1 SW26 393 S 9 3066 P 10/12-01 48 8 2 35 67 S 5 5 2 1 SW24 318 S 8 2400 P 10/12-02 48 8 2 34 67 S 5 5 2 1 SW23 244 S 8 1733 P 10/12-03 48 8 2 34 67 SW 5 5 2 1 SW22 169 SW 7 1067 P 10/12-04 48 8 2 34 65 SW 5 5 2 1 SW22 153 SW 7 964 P 10/12-05 48 8 2 33 65 SW 6 6 2 1 S22 136 SW 7 862 P 10/12-06 62 39 17 33 65 SW 6 6 2 1 S23 120 SW 7 760 P 10/12-07 62 39 17 34 62 SW 6 6 2 1 S25 132 SW 7 768 P 10/12-08 62 39 17 35 62 SW 5 5 2 1 S28 145 SW 6 777 P 10/12-09 62 39 17 37 61 SW 5 5 2 2 S32 158 SW 6 786 P 10/12-10 62 39 17 41 55 SW 5 5 2 2 S38 1286 SW10 19947 P 10/12-11 62 39 17 45 48 S 5 5 2 2 S44 2413 S15 39108 P 10/12-12 85 56 32 49 44 S 6 6 2 3 SW51 3541 S18 58269 F 10/12-13 85 56 32 51 42 S 7 7 2 3 SW59 4267 S23 92991 G 10/12-14 85 56 32 52 42 S 8 14 2 3 S66 4994 S28 127713 V 10/12-15 85 56 32 53 42 S 9 15 2 3 S67 5721 S32 162435 E 10/12-16 85 56 32 52 45 S 8 14 2 3 S59 5721 S29 145770 V 10/12-17 85 56 32 51 48 S 8 13 2 3 S46 5722 S26 129105 V 10/12-18 90 58 35 50 51 SW 8 13 2 3 S36 5723 SW23 112441 V 10/12-19 90 58 35 47 53 SW12 18 2 3 S30 5561 SW25 124176 V 10/12-20 90 58 35 44 56 W16 25 2 3 S28 5400 SW29 135911 V 10/12-21 90 58 35 41 59 W20 31 2 3 S26 5239 SW32 147646 V 10/12-22 90 58 35 39 62 W20 31 2 3 S24 5216 SW36 163857 E 10/12-23 90 58 35 38 65 W18 29 3 3 S23 5192 SW40 180069 E 10/13-00 82 57 33 36 67 W17 28 3 1 S24 5169 W44 196281 E 10/13-01 82 57 33 35 68 W18 30 3 1 SW28 5082 W47 206097 E 10/13-02 82 57 33 34 69 W21 32 2 1 W32 4995 W49 215913 E 10/13-03 82 57 33 34 70 W22 35 2 1 W37 4908 W53 225729 E 10/13-04 82 57 33 33 71 W22 36 2 1 W39 4401 W53 203702 E 10/13-05 82 57 33 32 72 W22 35 2 1 NW39 3894 W54 181674 E 10/13-06 69 39 17 32 73 W21 33 2 1 NW39 3388 W54 159647 E 10/13-07 69 39 17 33 73 W20 32 1 10/13-08 69 39 17 33 72 W20 31 1 10/13-09 69 39 17 35 70 W18 30 1 10/13-10 69 39 17 37 66 W17 28 1 10/13-11 69 39 17 40 60 W16 25 1 10/13-12 68 32 11 42 57 W15 24 1 10/13-13 68 32 11 43 55 W14 23 1 10/13-14 68 32 11 44 54 W14 22 1 10/13-15 68 32 11 44 54 W14 22 1 10/13-16 68 32 11 44 54 W14 22 1 10/13-17 68 32 11 43 55 W14 22 1 10/13-18 49 7 1 42 57 W14 22 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JAMES DOYLE REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121010.FERNL.01/BOU