FNUS75 KBOU 110954 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE FIRE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 354 AM MDT THU OCT 11 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT IN THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS AND TO THE FIRE. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT DID AS THE FRONTAL AIRMASS DEPTH IS RIGHT AROUND THE FIRES ELEVATION...MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL 3 PM OR LATER. OTHERWISE EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. IF THE FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE FIRE...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT A BIT MORE EASTERLY WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 30S BUMPING HUMIDITIES UP INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. COULD SEE SOME BUILDING CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...THESE SHOULD STAY THERE...NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY. SMOKE DISPERSION WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS TODAY...MAY STAY FAIR OR BELOW IF THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION MOVES IN AND STAYS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING SNOW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE WEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 20 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH PROBABLE. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....57. MIN HUMIDITY........32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 5600-6600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....32. MAX HUMIDITY........72%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6-7 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN SOUTHWEST 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54. MIN HUMIDITY........44%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 7-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH AROUND 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 5200-5800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERNLAKEFIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/11-03 41 0 0 41 51 W10 16 2 1 W44 945 W24 20047 P 10/11-04 41 0 0 39 55 W10 17 2 1 W44 702 W21 14188 P 10/11-05 41 0 0 37 60 W10 17 2 1 W43 459 W17 8329 P 10/11-06 46 0 0 35 66 W10 16 2 1 W41 216 W13 2470 P 10/11-07 46 0 0 36 65 W 9 15 2 1 W41 285 W12 2827 P 10/11-08 46 0 0 37 64 W 8 13 2 1 W43 353 W10 3184 P 10/11-09 46 0 0 39 61 W 7 7 2 1 W43 422 W 9 3541 P 10/11-10 46 0 0 43 52 W 7 7 2 1 W41 2264 W12 30286 P 10/11-11 46 0 0 47 44 W 7 7 2 1 W40 4106 W14 57032 F 10/11-12 59 1 0 51 37 W 7 7 2 1 W39 5948 W16 83777 G 10/11-13 59 1 0 53 35 W 7 7 2 1 W38 6203 W16 85127 G 10/11-14 59 1 0 56 33 SW 7 7 2 1 W37 6458 W15 86476 G 10/11-15 59 7 1 54 35 SW 7 7 2 1 W36 6712 W15 87825 G 10/11-16 59 7 1 53 36 SW 7 7 2 1 W35 5968 W14 72676 G 10/11-17 59 7 1 52 39 SW 7 7 2 1 W33 5223 SW13 57526 F 10/11-18 38 7 1 50 42 S 7 7 2 1 SW32 4479 SW10 42377 F 10/11-19 38 7 1 47 47 S 7 7 2 1 SW32 3144 SW 9 29282 P 10/11-20 38 7 1 44 54 SE 6 6 2 1 SW33 1809 S 9 16187 P 10/11-21 38 2 0 40 61 SE 6 6 2 1 SW32 474 S 8 3092 P 10/11-22 38 2 0 38 65 SE 5 5 2 1 SW31 400 S 7 2531 P 10/11-23 38 2 0 36 68 S 3 3 2 1 SW30 326 S 7 1970 P 10/12-00 45 2 0 35 69 S 3 3 2 1 SW28 252 S 7 1409 P 10/12-01 45 2 0 34 71 S 3 3 2 1 SW25 220 S 7 1268 P 10/12-02 45 2 0 34 72 SW 3 3 2 1 SW22 189 SW 7 1127 P 10/12-03 45 3 1 33 72 SW 5 5 2 1 SW20 157 SW 7 986 P 10/12-04 45 3 1 33 70 SW 6 6 2 1 SW17 148 SW 8 1048 P 10/12-05 45 3 1 33 67 SW 7 7 2 1 S15 139 SW 9 1110 P 10/12-06 74 26 6 32 67 SW 8 8 2 1 S15 131 SW10 1172 P 10/12-07 74 26 6 34 66 SW 7 7 2 1 S15 168 SW 9 1296 P 10/12-08 74 26 6 36 66 SW 7 7 2 1 S17 206 SW 8 1420 P 10/12-09 74 26 6 38 63 SW 7 7 2 1 S21 243 SW 7 1544 P 10/12-10 74 26 6 42 57 SW 9 9 2 1 S29 1864 SW12 32231 P 10/12-11 74 26 6 46 51 SW10 16 2 1 S38 3485 SW16 62917 G 10/12-12 91 67 48 50 46 SW13 20 2 3 SW45 5106 SW21 93603 G 10/12-13 91 67 48 52 45 SW13 20 2 3 SW46 5310 S21 96309 G 10/12-14 91 67 48 53 44 S13 18 2 3 SW45 5514 S21 99014 G 10/12-15 91 67 48 53 44 S12 17 2 3 SW41 5717 S21 101719 V 10/12-16 91 67 48 51 49 S 9 14 2 3 SW39 5489 S21 99154 G 10/12-17 91 67 48 49 52 S 7 7 2 3 SW36 5260 S21 96589 G 10/12-18 96 73 57 47 57 S 7 7 2 3 SW32 5031 S22 94024 G 10/12-19 96 73 57 44 63 S10 15 2 3 S26 5037 SW26 116313 V 10/12-20 96 73 57 41 67 SW15 23 2 3 S21 5043 SW31 138603 V 10/12-21 96 73 57 39 71 W20 30 2 3 SE16 5049 SW37 160892 E 10/12-22 96 73 57 39 69 W21 32 2 3 SE14 5072 SW38 169740 E 10/12-23 96 73 57 37 69 W22 32 2 3 SE12 5095 W40 178588 E 10/13-00 99 60 38 36 71 W22 33 2 1 SE12 5117 W43 187437 E 10/13-01 99 60 38 35 72 W23 35 2 1 E12 4779 W43 176640 E 10/13-02 99 60 38 34 73 W23 36 2 1 N13 4440 W43 165844 E 10/13-03 99 60 38 33 74 W24 37 2 1 NW16 4101 W44 155047 E 10/13-04 99 60 38 32 77 W25 37 2 1 N22 3681 W47 149299 V 10/13-05 99 60 38 31 78 W25 38 2 1 N30 3261 W52 143550 V 10/13-06 96 73 57 30 81 W25 38 2 1 N38 2841 W56 137801 V 10/13-07 96 73 57 31 80 W25 38 2 1 N47 2686 W52 121226 V 10/13-08 96 73 57 32 78 W24 37 2 1 N55 2531 NW47 104651 V 10/13-09 96 73 57 33 75 W24 36 2 1 N60 2376 NW43 88076 G 10/13-10 96 73 57 35 71 W23 35 2 1 N56 2666 NW39 90405 G 10/13-11 96 73 57 37 68 W23 33 2 1 N49 2955 NW37 92735 G 10/13-12 71 38 16 39 65 W22 33 2 1 N43 3244 NW33 95064 G 10/13-13 71 38 16 40 62 W22 32 2 1 N40 3569 NW33 104056 V 10/13-14 71 38 16 41 60 W22 32 2 1 NW39 3893 NW33 113048 V 10/13-15 71 38 16 42 59 W21 31 2 1 NW39 4218 NW33 122040 V 10/13-16 71 38 16 42 59 W20 29 2 1 NW37 3657 NW33 106745 V 10/13-17 71 38 16 41 62 W17 26 2 1 NW36 3097 NW35 91449 G 10/13-18 60 26 6 38 68 W16 24 2 1 NW35 2536 W35 76154 G 10/13-19 60 26 6 35 74 W15 23 2 1 NW32 1843 W31 53914 F 10/13-20 60 26 6 33 80 W14 22 2 1 NW30 1150 W28 31675 P 10/13-21 60 26 6 31 83 W14 21 2 1 NW29 457 W24 9435 P 10/13-22 60 26 6 31 84 W14 20 2 1 NW31 397 W22 7761 P 10/13-23 60 26 6 30 86 W13 20 2 1 NW33 337 W21 6088 P 10/14-00 50 20 4 29 86 W13 20 2 1 NW35 277 W18 4414 P 10/14-01 50 20 4 29 86 W13 18 2 1 NW33 286 W17 4333 P 10/14-02 50 20 4 28 88 W12 17 2 1 NW31 294 W16 4252 P 10/14-03 50 20 4 27 90 W12 17 2 1 NW30 303 W16 4171 P 10/14-04 50 20 4 27 91 W10 16 2 1 NW30 318 W15 4270 P 10/14-05 50 20 4 27 91 W10 16 2 1 NW31 334 W15 4369 P 10/14-06 34 2 0 28 91 W10 16 2 1 NW33 349 W15 4468 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...MARK MENDONCA REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121010.FERNL.02/BOU