FNUS75 KBOU 112256 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 456 PM MDT THU OCT 11 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WEATHER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL UNDERGO A RATHER DRAMATIC CHANGE WITH A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE. THE INITIAL STAGES OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY. THEN AS THE CENTER OF THIS STORM MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM WILL BEGIN TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH VALLEYS AND FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS OF NORTHERN COLORADO. PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA OF THE WILDFIRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN COVERAGE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A BATCH OF ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN STORM CENTER. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH DURING THE THE AFTERNOON... LOWERING TO AROUND 11000 FEET AGL BY EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO RACE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE CENTER OF THIS STORM OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING. A SHIFT TO COLDER NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO...INCLUDING ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK. THE PARK COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...TOGETHER WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ON SATURDAY WITH THIS STORM EXITING THE REGION. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-50%) UNTIL 2400...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0300. SNOW LEVEL AROUND 10500 FEET. MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-36. MAX HUMIDITY........69-74%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-10 MPH. GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2000...THEN BECOMING POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-57. MIN HUMIDITY........39-43%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH AROUND 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 0930 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...RISING TO 4800-5800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800....BECOMING GOOD AFTER 1700. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100...THEN SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES BY MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-32. MAX HUMIDITY........83-92%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN WEST 18-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25-36 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST AROUND 40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL UNTIL 0400...THEN 3000-3200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 2300...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 0300...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. PERIODS OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 1200...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW... MAINLY ON EXPOSED RIDGE TOPS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....36-42. MIN HUMIDITY........56-63%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST WINDS 17-27 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 36-44 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 24-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 50. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. WEST WINDS AROUND 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERNLAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/11-15 61 7 1 55 34 SW 7 7 2 1 W36 6672 W16 90810 G 10/11-16 61 7 1 54 36 SW 7 7 2 1 W33 5863 SW14 74612 G 10/11-17 61 7 1 53 38 SW 7 7 2 1 W31 5054 SW13 58414 F 10/11-18 39 7 1 51 41 S 7 7 2 1 W30 4245 SW12 42217 F 10/11-19 39 7 1 47 48 S 7 7 2 1 W31 3069 SW10 29908 P 10/11-20 39 7 1 43 55 SE 6 6 2 1 SW32 1892 S 9 17599 P 10/11-21 38 5 1 42 58 SE 6 6 2 1 SW32 715 S 8 5290 P 10/11-22 38 5 1 40 61 S 6 6 2 1 SW30 553 S 9 4186 P 10/11-23 38 5 1 39 62 S 5 5 2 1 SW28 392 S 9 3081 P 10/12-00 54 5 1 37 64 SW 5 5 2 1 SW25 231 SW10 1977 P 10/12-01 54 5 1 36 66 SW 5 5 2 1 SW22 199 SW 9 1628 P 10/12-02 54 5 1 35 68 SW 6 6 2 1 SW20 166 SW 8 1279 P 10/12-03 56 10 2 35 69 SW 6 6 2 1 SW18 134 SW 8 929 P 10/12-04 56 10 2 34 67 SW 6 6 2 1 SW20 132 SW 8 920 P 10/12-05 56 10 2 34 64 SW 6 6 2 1 SW21 130 SW 8 911 P 10/12-06 74 26 6 33 64 SW 6 6 2 1 SW23 128 SW 8 902 P 10/12-07 74 26 6 34 63 SW 6 6 2 1 SW22 494 SW10 5613 P 10/12-08 74 26 6 38 60 W 6 6 2 1 SW21 860 SW13 10325 P 10/12-09 74 26 6 43 53 W 6 6 2 1 S21 1226 SW14 15037 P 10/12-10 74 26 6 47 47 SW 6 6 2 1 S20 2670 SW14 31879 P 10/12-11 74 26 6 50 45 S 5 5 2 1 S21 4114 S14 48721 F 10/12-12 94 67 48 51 43 S 5 5 2 3 S23 5559 S14 65563 G 10/12-13 94 67 48 52 43 S 5 5 2 3 S31 5620 S15 73840 G 10/12-14 94 67 48 53 44 S 5 5 2 3 S40 5681 S16 82117 G 10/12-15 94 67 48 53 43 S 5 5 2 3 S46 5742 S18 90393 G 10/12-16 94 67 48 53 46 S 3 3 2 3 S45 5657 S18 91789 G 10/12-17 94 67 48 51 48 CALM 1 2 3 S40 5572 S20 93184 G 10/12-18 98 80 68 49 52 S 2 2 2 3 SW33 5487 S20 94580 G 10/12-19 98 80 68 45 61 S 6 6 2 3 S28 5267 SW25 114041 V 10/12-20 98 80 68 41 68 SW13 20 2 3 S22 5048 SW31 133503 V 10/12-21 98 80 68 39 70 W20 31 2 3 S15 4829 SW37 152965 E 10/12-22 98 80 68 37 72 W21 33 2 3 S16 4638 SW38 152501 E 10/12-23 98 80 68 36 72 W22 35 2 3 S20 4447 W39 152037 E 10/13-00 99 80 68 35 74 W22 35 2 1 S22 4257 W41 151574 E 10/13-01 99 80 68 34 75 W23 37 2 1 S21 4027 W40 142378 V 10/13-02 99 80 68 33 77 W23 38 2 1 SW18 3797 W40 133182 V 10/13-03 99 80 68 32 78 W24 39 2 1 W17 3567 W40 123986 V 10/13-04 99 80 68 31 79 W25 39 2 1 W21 3285 W41 116478 V 10/13-05 99 80 68 31 80 W25 40 2 1 NW25 3003 W41 108970 V 10/13-06 96 70 53 30 81 W25 40 2 1 N32 2720 W43 101462 V 10/13-07 96 70 53 31 78 W25 40 2 1 N39 2983 W41 105248 V 10/13-08 96 70 53 33 76 W25 39 2 1 N47 3246 W39 109034 V 10/13-09 96 70 53 36 68 W24 39 2 1 N52 3509 NW37 112820 V 10/13-10 96 70 53 39 61 W23 38 2 1 N54 4009 NW36 124420 V 10/13-11 96 70 53 41 59 W23 36 2 1 N53 4509 N35 136020 V 10/13-12 99 70 53 42 58 W22 35 2 1 N51 5009 N33 147619 V 10/13-13 99 70 53 42 57 W22 35 2 1 N46 5013 N30 132677 V 10/13-14 99 70 53 43 56 W22 35 2 1 N41 5017 N26 117735 V 10/13-15 99 70 53 43 56 W21 33 2 1 NW38 5020 NW23 102793 V 10/13-16 99 70 53 43 57 W20 31 2 1 NW37 4673 NW23 95578 G 10/13-17 99 70 53 42 59 W17 29 2 1 NW38 4326 NW23 88363 G 10/13-18 39 40 18 41 61 W16 25 2 1 NW39 3979 NW23 81148 G 10/13-19 39 40 18 38 67 W15 24 2 1 NW37 3307 NW25 70528 G 10/13-20 39 40 18 36 71 W14 23 2 1 NW35 2635 W28 59907 F 10/13-21 39 40 18 35 72 W14 22 2 1 NW33 1963 W29 49286 F 10/13-22 39 40 18 34 74 W14 22 2 1 NW31 1562 W29 38756 P 10/13-23 39 40 18 33 74 W13 21 2 1 NW30 1161 W28 28225 P 10/14-00 37 30 9 32 76 W13 21 2 1 NW29 759 W26 17694 P 10/14-01 37 30 9 32 76 W13 20 2 1 NW26 650 W25 14371 P 10/14-02 37 30 9 31 77 W12 20 2 1 NW23 540 W23 11049 P 10/14-03 37 30 9 31 78 W12 18 2 1 NW22 431 W21 7726 P 10/14-04 37 30 9 30 80 W12 12 2 1 NW23 428 W20 7355 P 10/14-05 37 30 9 30 82 W10 10 2 1 NW24 425 W18 6983 P 10/14-06 39 20 4 30 84 W10 10 2 1 NW26 422 W18 6612 P 10/14-07 39 20 4 30 82 W10 10 2 1 NW28 1554 W20 30888 P 10/14-08 39 20 4 35 70 W10 10 2 1 NW29 2686 W22 55164 F 10/14-09 39 20 4 40 58 W10 10 2 1 NW30 3818 NW24 79441 G 10/14-10 39 20 4 44 49 W10 10 2 1 NW31 4643 NW23 92179 G 10/14-11 39 20 4 46 45 W10 10 2 1 NW31 5467 W22 104916 V 10/14-12 39 0 0 48 42 W10 10 2 1 NW32 6291 W22 117654 V 10/14-13 39 0 0 49 41 W10 10 2 1 NW32 6582 W22 124973 V 10/14-14 39 0 0 49 41 W10 10 2 1 NW32 6873 W22 132292 V 10/14-15 39 0 0 50 40 W10 10 2 1 NW33 7163 NW22 139611 V 10/14-16 39 0 0 49 42 W10 10 2 1 NW33 6616 W22 125701 V 10/14-17 39 0 0 48 44 W 9 9 2 1 NW35 6069 W21 111791 V 10/14-18 25 0 0 46 47 W 9 9 2 1 NW36 5522 W21 97881 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...NATE WILLIAMSON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121011.FERNL.02/BOU