FNUS75 KGJT 111422
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR GOBLIN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
822 AM MDT THU OCT 11 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0727 MDT ON OCTOBER 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC STORM WILL BE EJECTING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AND
MOVING INTO UTAH FRIDAY THEN PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN COLORADO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PULL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO
AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ABOVE THE FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FIRST PART OF THE STORM WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER THE FIRE SITE.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AT RIDGE TOP LEVEL
BUT STEEPNESS OF THE TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LIGHT DOWNVALLEY
WIND TO DEVELOP. ERRATIC WINDS MAY MIX DOWN TO FIRE HOWEVER DUE
TO PASSING CONVECTION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A WET DAY WITH
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW LATE AS
CONVECTION BECOMES STRONGER. UPVALLEY WINDS SHOULD BE ENHANCED
BY THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%) THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-66 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY WINDS 2 TO 5 MPH THROUGH 1000 THEN
                    UPSLOPE FLOW 2 TO 5 MPH. AFTER 1300 WINDS
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1 THROUGH 1500 THEN 2.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
                    NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-80%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE
                    AT 3 TO 7 MPH NEAR SUNSET. DOWNVALLEY WINDS AFTER
                    2100 AT 2 TO 5 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
                    AT 1O TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100%). RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
                    THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY WINDS 2 TO 4 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AT 12 TO 16 MPH BY LATE MORNING. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.

.OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW POSSIBLE
BY SUNSET THROUGH MID DAY ON SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS ON THE RIDGETOPS
MAY BE UP TO 6 INCHES WITH LESS EXPECTED IN LOWER IN THE VALLEY.
THIS STORM WILL BE MOVING OUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN THROUGH REMAIN OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND 50S INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN BEHIND THE STORM AS WELL WITH WINDS AT RIDGETOP FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...DURANGO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20121011.GOBLI.01/GJT