FNUS75 KBOU 122300 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 500 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT....EXITING THE STATE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO A DROPPING SNOW LEVEL OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE TROUGH. BY SUNRISE EXPECT MEASURABLE SNOW BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET. SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. SNOW SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....28. MAX HUMIDITY........83%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 13-23 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5200 FT AGL UNTIL 0400...THEN 3000-3600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2300...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 0400...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....45. MIN HUMIDITY........53%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST WINDS 17-27 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1300...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .SATURDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....31. MAX HUMIDITY........77%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3800 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 1200-2200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2200...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....50. MIN HUMIDITY........40%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 5400-6400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERNLAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/12-16 90 79 66 51 56 S 7 7 2 3 SW38 5578 SW24 116717 V 10/12-17 90 79 66 50 56 SW 8 13 2 3 SW32 5565 SW21 102132 V 10/12-18 97 84 74 48 57 SW10 16 2 3 SW26 5552 SW18 87547 G 10/12-19 97 84 74 45 62 SW12 18 2 3 S18 5072 SW18 81503 G 10/12-20 100 84 74 42 69 SW14 22 2 3 SE10 4593 W20 75459 G 10/12-21 100 84 74 40 74 SW15 24 2 3 E 5 4114 W20 69414 G 10/12-22 100 84 74 38 78 W17 28 2 3 E 3 4293 W23 87349 G 10/12-23 100 84 74 37 79 W20 31 2 3 SE 3 4473 W26 105284 V 10/13-00 100 79 66 36 79 W21 33 2 1 SE 5 4652 W30 123218 V 10/13-01 100 79 66 35 81 W21 35 2 1 S 3 4466 W30 117876 V 10/13-02 100 79 66 34 82 W21 33 2 1 SW 2 4280 W30 112533 V 10/13-03 100 79 66 33 82 W21 33 2 1 W 3 4094 W30 107190 V 10/13-04 100 79 66 32 83 W20 31 2 1 W12 3525 W30 91841 G 10/13-05 100 79 66 31 83 W18 30 2 1 NW23 2956 W30 76491 G 10/13-06 100 72 56 31 81 W18 30 2 1 N32 2386 W30 61142 G 10/13-07 100 72 56 31 80 W20 32 2 1 N39 2555 W30 67161 G 10/13-08 100 72 56 32 78 W23 36 2 1 N44 2723 NW31 73181 G 10/13-09 100 72 56 34 74 W24 39 2 1 N46 2891 NW31 79201 G 10/13-10 100 72 56 36 68 W24 38 2 1 N47 3681 NW32 103269 V 10/13-11 100 72 56 40 61 W23 37 2 1 N46 4471 NW32 127337 V 10/13-12 99 70 53 42 57 W22 35 2 1 N43 5261 N33 151405 E 10/13-13 99 70 53 44 54 W22 36 2 1 N38 5389 N31 144470 V 10/13-14 99 70 53 44 53 W22 36 2 1 N35 5517 N29 137534 V 10/13-15 99 70 53 44 53 W21 33 2 1 N31 5646 NW26 130599 V 10/13-16 99 70 53 43 55 W16 26 2 1 N33 5053 NW25 113358 V 10/13-17 99 70 53 42 59 W12 18 2 1 N37 4460 NW24 96117 G 10/13-18 71 40 18 40 63 W 8 13 2 1 NW40 3867 NW23 78876 G 10/13-19 71 40 18 39 65 W 7 7 2 1 NW38 3321 NW26 72893 G 10/13-20 71 40 18 37 67 W 8 14 2 1 NW36 2775 W29 66909 G 10/13-21 71 40 18 36 68 W10 16 2 1 NW31 2230 W31 60925 G 10/13-22 71 40 18 35 70 W12 12 2 1 NW23 1479 W22 27892 P 10/13-23 71 40 18 35 70 W13 20 2 1 NW22 1388 W24 28729 P 10/14-00 70 40 18 34 71 W13 21 2 1 NW21 1298 W26 29566 P 10/14-01 70 40 18 34 71 W12 20 2 1 NW22 1176 W23 23776 P 10/14-02 70 40 18 33 72 W10 10 2 1 NW22 1054 NW18 17986 P 10/14-03 70 40 18 33 72 W 9 9 2 1 NW24 932 NW15 12196 P 10/14-04 70 40 18 32 74 W 8 8 2 1 NW25 993 NW13 11087 P 10/14-05 70 40 18 32 75 W 7 7 2 1 NW26 1053 W12 9978 P 10/14-06 27 20 4 32 77 W 7 7 2 1 NW28 1113 W 9 8868 P 10/14-07 27 20 4 32 76 W 7 7 2 1 NW26 2310 W12 25785 P 10/14-08 27 20 4 36 66 W 7 7 2 1 NW26 3506 W13 42702 F 10/14-09 27 20 4 41 55 W 7 7 2 1 NW24 4703 NW15 59619 F 10/14-10 27 20 4 45 48 W 7 7 2 1 NW21 5258 NW14 64324 G 10/14-11 27 20 4 47 44 W 8 8 2 1 NW17 5814 NW14 69028 G 10/14-12 23 0 0 48 42 W 8 8 2 1 NW15 6369 W14 73733 G 10/14-13 23 0 0 49 41 W 8 8 2 1 NW15 6311 W14 73621 G 10/14-14 23 0 0 49 40 W 9 9 2 1 NW18 6254 W14 73509 G 10/14-15 23 0 0 50 40 W 9 9 2 1 W22 6196 W14 73397 G 10/14-16 23 0 0 49 42 W 9 9 2 1 W23 5713 W14 70287 G 10/14-17 23 0 0 48 44 W 9 9 3 1 W25 5230 W15 67176 G 10/14-18 10 0 0 46 47 W 9 9 3 1 W26 4747 W15 64066 G 10/14-19 10 0 0 43 53 W 9 9 3 1 W29 3694 W16 51089 F 10/14-20 10 0 0 40 56 W10 10 4 1 NW30 2640 W17 38111 P 10/14-21 10 0 0 39 56 W10 10 4 1 NW31 1586 W18 25134 P 10/14-22 10 0 0 37 58 W10 10 3 1 NW30 1241 W18 19884 P 10/14-23 10 0 0 36 58 W12 12 3 1 NW28 895 W20 14634 P 10/15-00 10 0 0 35 60 W12 18 2 1 NW28 550 W20 9384 P 10/15-01 10 0 0 34 60 W13 20 3 1 NW28 471 W20 7957 P 10/15-02 10 0 0 34 61 W13 21 3 1 W29 393 W20 6529 P 10/15-03 10 0 0 33 63 W14 22 4 1 W30 314 W18 5102 P 10/15-04 10 0 0 32 64 W14 22 3 1 NW33 300 W18 4847 P 10/15-05 10 0 0 32 66 W14 22 3 1 NW36 285 W18 4592 P 10/15-06 19 0 0 32 68 W14 22 2 1 NW38 271 W18 4337 P 10/15-07 19 0 0 33 66 W14 23 3 1 NW38 682 W21 14509 P 10/15-08 19 0 0 37 56 W15 23 3 1 NW36 1094 W24 24680 P 10/15-09 19 0 0 43 46 W15 24 4 1 NW35 1506 W26 34851 P 10/15-10 19 0 0 48 38 W16 25 4 1 NW33 2264 W28 57375 F 10/15-11 19 0 0 51 36 W16 26 3 1 NW31 3022 W30 79900 G 10/15-12 19 0 0 53 34 W17 28 3 1 W31 3780 W31 102424 V 10/15-13 19 0 0 54 33 W18 29 3 1 W31 4091 W32 113414 V 10/15-14 19 0 0 54 32 W18 30 3 1 W32 4401 W32 124403 V 10/15-15 19 0 0 55 31 W18 30 3 1 W33 4712 W33 135393 V 10/15-16 19 0 0 54 32 W17 28 3 1 W35 4350 W33 126193 V 10/15-17 19 0 0 53 32 W15 24 4 1 W37 3989 W33 116993 V 10/15-18 39 0 0 51 34 W14 22 4 1 W38 3627 W35 107793 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FBAN REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121012.FERNL.01/BOU