FNUS75 KBOU 132339 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NIMO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 516 PM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...COOL AND MOIST AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF A TIGHTLY WOUND PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP BACK INTO COLORADO THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS LINGER LARGELY ON THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...WHEREAS THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY HAVE DIMINISHED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST AWAY FROM COLORADO...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE STATE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT AREAS MAY REMAIN UNDER A COVER OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS CLOUD COVER MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARMER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1900...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2300....THEN DRY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34. MAX HUMIDITY........73-78%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH MAINLY RIDGE TOPS UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24-32 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...LOWERING TO 1800-2300 FT AGL AFTER 0200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900...BECOMING POOR AFTER 0100. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-56. MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2700 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...RISING TO 6000-7000 FT AGL BY 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .SUNDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....31. MAX HUMIDITY........68%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54. MIN HUMIDITY........30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 14-24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-28 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 36-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 3400-4400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERNLAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/13-17 88 42 19 42 56 W 9 15 2 1 N47 4474 NW30 114396 V 10/13-18 86 45 22 41 59 W 9 15 2 1 N46 4060 NW30 103567 V 10/13-19 86 45 22 39 61 W10 16 2 1 N43 3526 NW31 93022 G 10/13-20 86 45 22 38 64 W10 17 2 1 NW39 2992 NW32 82477 G 10/13-21 79 45 22 37 66 W12 18 2 1 NW36 2457 W33 71931 G 10/13-22 79 45 22 36 67 W12 18 2 1 NW35 2321 W30 60772 G 10/13-23 79 45 22 36 67 W12 17 2 1 NW33 2185 NW25 49612 F 10/14-00 86 37 15 35 67 W10 16 2 1 NW33 2049 NW22 38452 P 10/14-01 86 37 15 35 68 W 9 15 2 1 NW36 2090 NW20 35616 P 10/14-02 86 37 15 35 69 W 9 14 2 1 NW38 2131 NW17 32779 P 10/14-03 86 37 15 34 69 W 8 13 2 1 NW39 2172 NW16 29942 P 10/14-04 86 37 15 34 70 W 7 7 2 1 NW39 2099 NW15 28251 P 10/14-05 86 37 15 33 71 W 7 7 2 1 NW38 2027 NW15 26560 P 10/14-06 72 20 4 33 74 W 7 7 2 1 NW37 1955 NW15 24870 P 10/14-07 72 20 4 33 75 W 7 7 2 1 NW36 3055 NW17 49830 F 10/14-08 72 20 4 37 69 W 8 13 2 1 NW36 4154 NW20 74790 G 10/14-09 55 8 2 41 61 W 9 15 2 1 NW35 5254 NW22 99750 G 10/14-10 55 8 2 45 53 W10 16 2 1 NW33 5861 NW22 109657 V 10/14-11 55 8 2 47 48 W10 17 2 1 NW32 6468 NW22 119564 V 10/14-12 33 0 0 48 44 W12 18 2 1 NW31 7075 NW21 129471 V 10/14-13 33 0 0 49 42 W13 20 2 1 NW32 7056 NW21 128321 V 10/14-14 33 0 0 49 41 W13 21 2 1 NW33 7038 NW21 127172 V 10/14-15 33 0 0 50 40 W13 21 2 1 N33 7019 NW21 126022 V 10/14-16 33 0 0 49 41 W12 18 2 1 NW32 6377 NW20 107691 V 10/14-17 33 0 0 48 44 W 9 15 2 1 NW31 5734 NW17 89361 G 10/14-18 20 0 0 46 47 W 8 13 2 1 NW31 5092 NW16 71030 G 10/14-19 20 0 0 43 53 W 8 13 2 1 NW32 3862 NW16 54113 F 10/14-20 20 0 0 40 56 W 8 14 3 1 NW36 2632 W16 37197 P 10/14-21 20 0 0 39 56 W 9 15 3 1 NW38 1402 W16 20281 P 10/14-22 20 0 0 37 58 W 9 9 3 1 NW39 1073 W15 15086 P 10/14-23 20 0 0 36 58 W 9 9 3 1 NW39 744 W14 9891 P 10/15-00 2 0 0 35 60 W 9 9 3 1 NW39 415 W13 4696 P 10/15-01 2 0 0 34 60 W 9 9 3 1 NW38 355 W13 3930 P 10/15-02 2 0 0 34 61 W10 10 3 1 NW37 295 W13 3163 P 10/15-03 2 0 0 33 63 W10 10 3 1 NW36 235 W12 2396 P 10/15-04 2 0 0 32 64 W10 10 3 1 NW35 228 W13 2485 P 10/15-05 2 0 0 32 66 W12 12 2 1 NW35 222 W14 2574 P 10/15-06 19 0 0 32 68 W12 18 2 1 NW35 215 W14 2664 P 10/15-07 19 0 0 33 66 W13 20 2 1 NW32 677 W20 15426 P 10/15-08 19 0 0 37 57 W14 22 2 1 NW30 1139 W24 28189 P 10/15-09 19 0 0 43 46 W15 24 3 1 NW28 1601 W30 40952 F 10/15-10 19 0 0 47 39 W16 26 4 1 NW23 2258 W32 67817 G 10/15-11 19 0 0 50 37 W18 29 4 1 W20 2914 W36 94682 G 10/15-12 18 0 0 52 35 W20 31 5 1 W16 3571 W39 121547 V 10/15-13 18 0 0 53 34 W21 33 5 1 W16 3875 W39 129839 V 10/15-14 18 0 0 53 34 W21 33 5 1 W17 4178 W38 138131 V 10/15-15 18 0 0 54 33 W21 33 5 1 W21 4481 W38 146424 V 10/15-16 18 0 0 53 31 W20 31 5 1 W26 4301 W38 142167 V 10/15-17 18 0 0 52 30 W17 28 4 1 W32 4120 W39 137910 V 10/15-18 34 0 0 50 30 W16 25 4 1 W38 3939 W39 133653 V 10/15-19 34 0 0 47 35 W16 25 3 1 W41 3265 W39 111233 V 10/15-20 34 0 0 44 40 W17 26 3 1 W44 2590 W39 88812 G 10/15-21 34 0 0 42 44 W17 28 2 1 W46 1916 W40 66391 G 10/15-22 34 0 0 41 46 W17 28 2 1 W46 1596 W37 53047 F 10/15-23 34 0 0 40 47 W16 26 2 1 W46 1276 W35 39703 P 10/16-00 23 0 0 39 48 W16 25 2 1 W46 956 W32 26358 P 10/16-01 23 0 0 38 49 W16 26 2 1 W49 888 W31 24436 P 10/16-02 23 0 0 37 51 W17 28 2 1 NW53 821 W31 22514 P 10/16-03 23 0 0 36 53 W17 28 2 1 NW55 753 W31 20592 P 10/16-04 23 0 0 36 55 W17 28 3 1 NW54 725 W31 19386 P 10/16-05 23 0 0 35 57 W16 26 3 1 NW52 696 W30 18180 P 10/16-06 24 0 0 35 58 W16 25 4 1 NW48 668 W29 16974 P 10/16-07 24 0 0 36 57 W16 25 4 1 NW47 1464 W33 49368 F 10/16-08 24 0 0 39 52 W16 26 3 1 NW47 2261 W38 81762 G 10/16-09 24 0 0 44 45 W17 28 3 1 NW47 3058 W43 114157 V 10/16-10 24 0 0 48 39 W18 30 3 1 NW47 3539 W44 134604 V 10/16-11 24 0 0 50 37 W21 33 2 1 W48 4021 W44 155051 E 10/16-12 42 0 0 51 36 W23 37 2 1 W49 4502 W45 175498 E 10/16-13 42 0 0 52 35 W25 40 2 1 W53 4777 W48 200604 E 10/16-14 42 0 0 52 34 W26 43 2 1 W56 5052 W51 225711 E 10/16-15 42 0 0 53 34 W28 44 2 1 W59 5328 W54 250817 E 10/16-16 42 0 0 52 35 W28 45 2 1 W60 4932 W55 235710 E 10/16-17 42 0 0 51 36 W28 44 2 1 W60 4536 W56 220602 E 10/16-18 60 20 4 49 39 W26 43 2 1 NW59 4141 W58 205494 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FBAN REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121013.FERNL.01/BOU