FNUS72 KJAX 141648
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG SHOALS PILE BURNS...FLA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1248 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1330 EDT ON OCTOBER 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION... A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. MIN RH
VALUES MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO BELOW CRITICAL VALUES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...ERC VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW
35 AND SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 8 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....50 DECREASING TO 41 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........36     43     46
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............87     87     87
RH..............66     54     55
20 FT WIND......E 8    E 7    E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....4000   4200   4100
TRANSPORT WIND..E 12   E 8    E 8
DISPERSION INDX.54     41     40
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-1400 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 0 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....33 DECREASING TO 3 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
TEMP............85     73     69     68     67     65
RH..............55     80     90     91     92     97
20 FT WIND......E 6    E 5    E 3    E 2    E 1    E 1
20 FT WIND GUST.10            5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....3500   1800   1100   700    500    300
TRANSPORT WIND..E 8    E 9    SE 8   SE 6   SE 5   SE 1
LVORI...........1      3      5      6      6      8
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300-4400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST AROUND 0 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 0
                    TO 9 MPH IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST 9 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 46.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...STRUBLE
REQUESTED BY...DYLAN SHOEMAKER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121014.BIGSH.01/JAX