FNUS75 KBOU 152254 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 454 PM MDT MON OCT 15 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A SWIFT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A POWERFUL JET STREAM PASSING OVER THE AREA. TUESDAY ALSO LOOKS WINDY IN THESE AREAS... HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINE TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGE TOPS. MEANWHILE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECLINE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DUE TO THESE GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS. HUMIDITY VALUES OVER AND ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK...ARE NOT EXCEPTED TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA ON TUESDAY. WHEREAS THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH STRONGER. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(25-40%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39. MAX HUMIDITY........38-46%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 32-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 2400-3400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 0200...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59. MIN HUMIDITY........24-32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST WINDS 15-25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...MAINLY ON THE EXPOSED RIDGES. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 36-44 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 44-56 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1700. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-36. MAX HUMIDITY........75-82%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 14-24 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 32-52 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 25-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 2200 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0200...THEN 1200-2200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR UNTIL 0400...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........VERY WINDY. PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45. MIN HUMIDITY........28-34%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......VERY WINDY. WEST WINDS 27-39 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 44-60 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERNLAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/15-16 30 0 0 57 22 W17 26 5 1 W25 5490 W31 150177 E 10/15-17 30 0 0 56 23 W17 28 5 1 W28 5425 W33 154826 E 10/15-18 34 0 0 54 24 W17 28 5 1 W32 5360 W35 159475 E 10/15-19 34 0 0 50 28 W18 29 4 1 W37 4813 W35 145628 V 10/15-20 34 0 0 47 31 W18 30 3 1 W43 4266 W36 131780 V 10/15-21 34 0 0 46 33 W18 30 2 1 W45 3719 W37 117932 V 10/15-22 34 0 0 44 36 W17 28 2 1 W45 3634 W37 117411 V 10/15-23 34 0 0 43 37 W15 24 2 1 W43 3549 W38 116890 V 10/16-00 33 0 0 42 39 W14 22 3 1 W40 3464 W39 116369 V 10/16-01 33 0 0 41 41 W13 21 3 1 W40 3188 W38 105648 V 10/16-02 33 0 0 40 43 W13 21 4 1 NW41 2912 W37 94926 G 10/16-03 33 0 0 40 45 W13 21 4 1 NW40 2635 W37 84204 G 10/16-04 33 0 0 39 46 W13 21 4 1 NW39 2440 W37 77880 G 10/16-05 33 0 0 39 47 W13 21 4 1 NW37 2244 W37 71555 G 10/16-06 36 0 0 38 48 W14 22 4 1 NW35 2048 W37 65230 G 10/16-07 36 0 0 39 48 W15 24 4 1 NW31 2511 W39 87368 G 10/16-08 36 0 0 42 45 W17 28 4 1 NW29 2973 W41 109506 V 10/16-09 45 0 0 47 40 W18 30 4 1 NW29 3435 W44 131644 V 10/16-10 45 0 0 51 35 W18 30 3 1 NW35 4076 W44 155160 E 10/16-11 45 0 0 53 33 W20 31 3 1 NW41 4716 W44 178677 E 10/16-12 63 8 2 54 32 W20 31 2 1 NW48 5357 W44 202194 E 10/16-13 63 8 2 55 32 W21 33 2 1 NW51 5454 W45 214450 E 10/16-14 63 8 2 55 33 W23 37 2 1 NW52 5551 W47 226706 E 10/16-15 63 10 2 56 33 W24 39 2 1 NW53 5648 W48 238962 E 10/16-16 63 10 2 55 35 W24 39 2 1 W55 5445 W52 242133 E 10/16-17 63 10 2 54 37 W24 39 2 1 W59 5242 W54 245305 E 10/16-18 75 30 9 50 41 W24 39 2 1 W61 5039 W56 248477 E 10/16-19 75 30 9 45 48 W24 39 2 1 W63 3643 W51 175157 E 10/16-20 75 30 9 41 55 W24 39 2 1 W66 2247 W45 101838 V 10/16-21 75 46 23 39 59 W24 39 2 1 W68 851 W39 28519 P 10/16-22 75 46 23 34 70 W21 33 3 1 W66 293 W28 6646 P 10/16-23 75 46 23 33 73 W17 28 2 1 W62 365 W24 7431 P 10/17-00 75 46 23 32 74 W15 24 2 1 W61 437 W22 8216 P 10/17-01 75 46 23 31 78 W16 25 2 1 W66 680 W25 16607 P 10/17-02 75 46 23 29 83 W18 30 2 1 W73 923 W29 24999 P 10/17-03 75 46 23 28 84 W21 33 2 1 W79 1166 W33 33390 P 10/17-04 75 46 23 28 79 W21 33 2 1 W82 1786 W37 60062 G 10/17-05 75 46 23 29 71 W20 32 2 1 NW83 2406 W40 86734 G 10/17-06 61 10 2 29 65 W20 31 2 1 NW84 3026 W43 113407 V 10/17-07 61 10 2 28 62 W21 33 2 1 NW84 3115 W44 119905 V 10/17-08 61 10 2 28 58 W22 36 2 1 NW83 3204 W45 126404 V 10/17-09 61 10 2 30 51 W24 39 2 1 NW84 3292 W46 132903 V 10/17-10 61 10 2 33 43 W25 40 2 1 NW86 3839 W48 164404 E 10/17-11 61 10 2 37 35 W26 41 2 1 NW90 4386 W51 195905 E 10/17-12 25 2 0 39 31 W28 44 2 1 NW93 4932 W53 227405 E 10/17-13 25 2 0 41 29 W31 49 2 1 NW94 4966 W55 239624 E 10/17-14 25 2 0 40 28 W35 54 3 1 NW96 4999 W58 251843 E 10/17-15 25 2 0 40 28 W36 58 3 1 NW94 5032 W60 264061 E 10/17-16 25 2 0 39 28 W35 54 3 1 NW93 4331 W59 223509 E 10/17-17 25 2 0 37 30 W31 49 3 1 NW91 3629 W58 182957 E 10/17-18 11 0 0 34 33 W28 44 3 1 NW87 2928 W56 142405 V 10/17-19 11 0 0 32 35 W25 40 3 1 NW84 2351 W51 108600 V 10/17-20 11 0 0 29 38 W23 38 3 1 NW81 1775 W45 74796 G 10/17-21 11 0 0 28 39 W22 35 3 1 NW77 1198 W39 40991 F 10/17-22 11 0 0 27 41 W21 32 3 1 NW75 1041 W37 33979 P 10/17-23 11 0 0 26 42 W20 31 2 1 NW73 885 W35 26966 P 10/18-00 15 0 0 26 43 W18 30 2 1 NW70 728 W31 19954 P 10/18-01 15 0 0 25 44 W17 29 2 1 NW68 668 W30 17386 P 10/18-02 15 0 0 24 46 W17 28 2 1 NW67 608 W28 14817 P 10/18-03 15 0 0 23 47 W17 28 2 1 NW64 547 W25 12249 P 10/18-04 15 0 0 23 46 W17 28 2 1 NW62 628 W28 15378 P 10/18-05 15 0 0 24 44 W17 28 2 1 NW61 710 W30 18506 P 10/18-06 11 2 0 25 43 W17 28 2 1 NW59 791 W31 21635 P 10/18-07 11 2 0 24 44 W17 28 2 1 NW58 821 W30 21557 P 10/18-08 11 2 0 24 44 W17 28 3 1 NW58 851 W29 21478 P 10/18-09 11 2 0 27 39 W17 28 3 1 NW58 881 W28 21400 P 10/18-10 11 2 0 32 32 W17 28 3 1 NW58 1925 W31 56875 F 10/18-11 11 2 0 38 25 W16 26 3 1 NW58 2968 W33 92350 G 10/18-12 12 2 0 42 22 W16 25 3 1 NW58 4012 NW37 127825 V 10/18-13 12 2 0 44 21 W16 26 3 1 NW58 4219 NW36 131351 V 10/18-14 12 2 0 43 22 W16 26 3 1 NW56 4425 NW36 134877 V 10/18-15 12 2 0 43 22 W16 25 3 1 NW56 4632 NW35 138404 V 10/18-16 12 2 0 42 24 W15 24 3 1 NW56 3731 W31 105827 V 10/18-17 12 2 0 40 26 W14 22 3 1 NW56 2830 W28 73250 G 10/18-18 14 2 0 37 30 W13 21 3 1 NW56 1929 W24 40674 F KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FBAN REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121015.FERNL.01/BOU