FNUS75 KGJT 141801
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MATHESON PRESERVE RX...MOAB BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1201 PM MDT SUN OCT 14 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 MDT ON OCTOBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STABLE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE CLEARING INDEX BELOW 500 ALL DAY. A STRONG VALLEY INVERSION
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO MIX COMPLETELY OUT AND WEAK SURFACE
AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO INHIBIT SMOKE
DISPERSAL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER
TRANSPORT WINDS AND A LITTLE DEEPER MIXING THAT WILL BOOST THE
CLEARING INDEX ABOVE 500. A COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-72 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    VARIABLE 1-3 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN  UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
                    5 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX.......360
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-500 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO
                    4600 FT AGL BY 2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH UNTIL 1100 THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 9 MPH BY 1400.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........44-49%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH AFTER SUNSET
CLEARING INDEX......200 DECREASING TO 50 IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-300 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH
                    2000.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    VARIABLE 1-3 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN  UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
                    5 MPH. AFTER 1400...WEST 5-8 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......50 INCREASING TO 500 BY 1330...AND 850 BY 2200.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-500 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO
                    2700 FT AGL AT 1200...AND 6500 FT AGL BY 2100..
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 15 MPH BY 1400.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...JOSHU RELPH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121015.MATHE.01/GJT