FNUS76 KMFR 151608
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOST CREEK PILE BURN...NPS CLP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
908 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 PDT ON OCTOBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AROUND NOON TO MID AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER LIGHT DRIZZLE WITH LOW CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE MOST THE DAY
WITH  ONLY BRIEF BREAKS IN RAIN ACTIVITY. THEN RAIN WILL INCREASE
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY BY EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SOME INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE THE BURN AREA. WINDS
MAY BE VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WINDS SWITCH FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO MORE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

.TODAY...

MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 2 TO 3 MPH BECOMING
                    SOUTH WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.  VARIABLE GUSTS TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    LATE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1000-1500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........WEST-SOUTHWEST 18 MPH INCREASING TO
                    25 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...

MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42-44.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                      VARIABLE 5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE NIGHT. WINDS
                      MAY SWITCH TO NORTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING
                      TUESDAY.
CWR.................100 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...CLARSTROM
REQUESTED BY...GREG FUNDERBURK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121015.LOSTC.01/MFR