FNUS75 KBOU 161713 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1112 AM MDT TUE OCT 16 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT... .DISCUSSION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN INCREASING THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT GUSTS COULD REACH 70 MPH AT TIMES...HOWEVER THESE STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE PARK. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES. OTHERWISE...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING WITH AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN THE VALLEY AREAS AND UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. ON WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING AND ENDING BY 1200. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-60. MIN HUMIDITY........26-30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING VERY WINDY. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH BECOMING WESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 30-45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 48-56 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2200...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-33. MAX HUMIDITY........79-84%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......VERY WINDY. WEST WINDS 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN 18-26 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 40-60 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 33-44 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 1600-2600 FT AGL UNTIL 0500...THEN 3200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2000...BECOMING FAIR BY 2300. THEN GOOD UNTIL 0500. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....41. MIN HUMIDITY........25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDY. WEST WINDS 22-32 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 44-64 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 0700...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERNLAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/16-10 28 0 0 47 40 W33 51 2 1 NW47 4430 W47 181935 E 10/16-11 28 0 0 51 34 W31 47 2 1 W49 5037 W47 207701 E 10/16-12 68 5 1 54 31 W30 45 2 1 W53 5645 W47 233468 E 10/16-13 68 5 1 56 30 W32 48 2 1 W56 5649 W51 248272 E 10/16-14 68 5 1 56 31 W36 54 2 1 W59 5653 W54 263077 E 10/16-15 74 10 2 56 31 W39 59 2 1 W61 5656 W56 277881 E 10/16-16 74 10 2 55 33 W41 62 2 1 W60 5198 W58 257633 E 10/16-17 74 10 2 52 38 W41 62 2 1 W59 4739 W58 237384 E 10/16-18 80 30 9 47 45 W40 61 2 1 W59 4280 W59 217136 E 10/16-19 80 30 9 44 50 W36 53 2 1 W63 3483 W54 170044 E 10/16-20 80 30 9 40 57 W30 44 2 1 W69 2686 W51 122951 V 10/16-21 80 30 9 39 60 W24 37 2 1 W74 1889 W46 75858 G 10/16-22 80 46 23 37 64 W22 33 2 1 W74 1737 W41 63269 G 10/16-23 80 46 23 35 67 W22 32 2 1 W73 1585 W36 50680 F 10/17-00 69 46 23 35 67 W22 33 2 1 W73 1432 W31 38090 P 10/17-01 69 46 23 33 71 W22 33 3 1 W78 1599 W33 46276 F 10/17-02 69 46 23 30 79 W22 33 3 1 W84 1765 W35 54462 F 10/17-03 69 46 23 28 84 W22 33 4 1 W89 1932 W37 62647 G 10/17-04 69 46 23 28 79 W21 31 4 1 W90 2564 W39 91057 G 10/17-05 69 46 23 29 71 W20 29 4 1 W89 3197 W43 119467 V 10/17-06 52 10 2 29 65 W18 28 4 1 NW87 3829 W45 147876 V 10/17-07 52 10 2 28 62 W18 28 4 1 NW86 3965 W47 162199 E 10/17-08 52 10 2 28 59 W18 28 4 1 NW85 4101 W49 176522 E 10/17-09 52 10 2 30 52 W18 28 4 1 NW85 4236 W52 190845 E 10/17-10 52 10 2 33 44 W21 33 3 1 NW86 4552 W53 211665 E 10/17-11 52 10 2 37 36 W23 37 2 1 NW89 4868 W55 232485 E 10/17-12 25 2 0 39 31 W25 40 2 1 NW92 5183 W56 253305 E 10/17-13 25 2 0 41 28 W28 44 2 1 NW94 5250 NW56 259426 E 10/17-14 25 2 0 40 27 W29 46 3 1 NW97 5317 NW58 265547 E 10/17-15 25 2 0 40 25 W30 48 3 1 NW99 5384 NW58 271668 E 10/17-16 25 2 0 39 25 W30 48 3 1NW100 4962 NW59 253676 E 10/17-17 25 2 0 37 27 W28 44 3 1 NW99 4540 W60 235683 E 10/17-18 15 0 0 34 30 W26 43 3 1 NW98 4118 W61 217691 E 10/17-19 15 0 0 32 32 W25 40 3 1 NW97 3451 W58 175432 E 10/17-20 15 0 0 29 35 W23 37 2 1 NW94 2784 W53 133173 V 10/17-21 15 0 0 28 36 W22 35 2 1 NW91 2118 W49 90915 G 10/17-22 15 0 0 27 38 W21 33 2 1 NW85 1900 W47 78848 G 10/17-23 15 0 0 26 40 W20 31 2 1 NW79 1682 W45 66781 G 10/18-00 15 0 0 26 42 W18 30 2 1 NW76 1464 W43 54715 F 10/18-01 15 0 0 25 43 W18 30 2 1 NW76 1296 W40 46435 F 10/18-02 15 0 0 24 44 W20 31 2 1 NW77 1128 W38 38155 P 10/18-03 15 0 0 23 45 W20 31 2 1 NW79 961 W36 29875 P 10/18-04 15 0 0 23 44 W20 31 2 1 NW79 1085 W37 35506 P 10/18-05 15 0 0 24 42 W18 30 2 1 NW78 1210 W39 41137 F 10/18-06 11 2 0 25 41 W17 28 2 1 NW77 1335 W40 46768 F 10/18-07 11 2 0 24 43 W16 25 2 1 NW75 1370 W39 47212 F 10/18-08 11 2 0 24 44 W15 24 2 1 NW73 1406 W39 47656 F 10/18-09 11 2 0 27 40 W14 22 2 1 NW70 1441 W38 48100 F 10/18-10 11 2 0 32 33 W14 22 2 1 NW69 2287 NW39 79733 G 10/18-11 11 2 0 38 27 W15 24 3 1 NW67 3132 NW40 111366 V 10/18-12 12 2 0 42 24 W15 24 3 1 NW66 3977 NW41 142999 V 10/18-13 12 2 0 44 23 W15 24 3 1 NW63 4080 NW40 141474 V 10/18-14 12 2 0 43 23 W15 24 3 1 NW61 4184 NW39 139950 V 10/18-15 12 2 0 43 24 W15 24 3 1 NW60 4287 NW37 138425 V 10/18-16 12 2 0 42 25 W15 24 3 1 NW59 3671 NW36 116369 V 10/18-17 12 2 0 40 28 W14 22 2 1 NW59 3055 NW36 94312 G 10/18-18 14 2 0 37 32 W14 22 2 1 NW58 2438 W35 72255 G 10/18-19 14 2 0 35 34 W14 22 2 1 NW56 1887 W32 54530 F 10/18-20 14 2 0 32 37 W13 21 3 1 NW55 1336 W30 36806 P 10/18-21 14 2 0 31 37 W13 20 3 1 NW54 785 W28 19081 P 10/18-22 14 2 0 30 39 W13 20 3 1 NW52 642 W25 14863 P 10/18-23 14 2 0 29 40 W12 18 2 1 NW49 498 W23 10646 P 10/19-00 10 2 0 29 40 W12 18 2 1 NW48 355 W21 6428 P 10/19-01 10 2 0 28 42 W12 18 2 1 NW49 323 W20 5628 P 10/19-02 10 2 0 27 45 W12 18 3 1 NW49 292 W18 4827 P 10/19-03 10 2 0 27 46 W12 18 3 1 NW51 261 W17 4027 P 10/19-04 10 2 0 27 47 W12 18 3 1 NW51 277 W17 4283 P 10/19-05 10 2 0 28 46 W12 18 4 1 NW49 293 W18 4540 P 10/19-06 13 2 0 29 46 W12 18 4 1 NW49 309 W18 4796 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...NATE WILLIAMSON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121016.FERNL.01/BOU