FNUS72 KJAX 151703
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR COMP 77...OSCEOLA NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
103 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON OCTOBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WEST 10 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...THEN WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST TRAILING THE FRONT TONIGHT.

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AND AIRMASS WILL FILTER OVER THE AREA
ON TUESDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30-35% AND
ERC VALUES NEAR 20 UNITS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

.TONIGHT...

MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 7 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-800 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 6 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....58 DECREASING TO 6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
TEMP............82     71     67     64     62     60
RH..............60     83     91     95     97     90
20 FT WIND......W 7    W 6    NW 3   NW 5   N 6    N 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....2900   1100   600    400    300    600
TRANSPORT WIND..W 13   W 12   NW 8   NW 6   N 6    N 7

.TUESDAY...

MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300-5800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 8 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 74 EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 60 LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
RH..............85     79     56     41     35     35
20 FT WIND......N 7    N 6    N 8    NE 8   NE 7   NE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....900    1300   3200   4800   5700   5700
TRANSPORT WIND..N 8    N 9    NE 13  NE 13  NE 10  NE 9

$$
FORECASTER...ENYEDI
REQUESTED BY...SUSAN KETT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121016.COMP7.01/JAX