FNUS76 KMFR 151713
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR MCBALDY...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1013 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 PDT ON OCTOBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE BURN
AREA THIS EVENING...INCREASING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING...BECOMING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS AS WELL AS OFFSHORE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA WITH COOLER AND MOISTER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON..
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 55 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST WINDS  4 TO 8 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTH FACING SLOPES ARE EXPECTED
                    TO SEE LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING WEST
                    3 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-3500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST
                    15 TO 25 MPH IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT..
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50-54.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15
                    MPH...BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING
                    VARIABLE 4 TO 8 MPH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH
                    FACING SLOPES WILL SEE WEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 15  MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    8 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE NIGHT...DECREASING TO
                    6 TO 10 MPH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-1000 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................75 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON..
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53-58.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH BECOMING
                    NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH FACING
                    SLOPES MAY SEE LIGHT OR MORE VARIABLE WINDS
                    DUE TO SHELTERING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1200-2500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BECOMING NORTH IN THE
                    MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...CLARSTROM
REQUESTED BY...THOMAS SHICKLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121016.MCBAL.01/MFR