FNUS76 KMFR 151758
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR MCBALDY...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1058 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 PDT ON OCTOBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...BEHIND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WINDS WILL DECREASE
TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST OVER
THE BURN AREA. SOUTH FACING SLOPES MAY HAVE LIGHTER OR MORE
VARIABLE WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
DECREASING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LIGHT OFFSHORE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BURN AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EXPECT DECREASED
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT WITH WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY DAYTIME
CONDITIONS.


.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53-58.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH BECOMING
                    NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH FACING
                    SLOPES MAY SEE LIGHT OR MORE VARIABLE WINDS
                    4 TO 8 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING UPSLOPE
                    3 TO 7 IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTS TO 10-15 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1200-2500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BECOMING NORTH IN THE
                    MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38.
MAX HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST 2 TO 5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY..
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-64.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST 2 TO 5 MPH BECOMING UPSLOPE 2 TO 5 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 700-1500 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 4 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 3 TO 7
                    MPH IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...CLARSTROM
REQUESTED BY...THOMAS SHICKLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121016.MCBAL.01/MFR