FNUS75 KABQ 171451
FWSABQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAN JUAN RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
851 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS TODAY...

DISCUSSION...
A DRY COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...IS MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT. A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND PROVIDE LOWERING HUMIDITIES...ESPECIALLY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MIXES DURING THE AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRE AREA TODAY. STRONGER
WINDS...LOWER HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 2 TO 3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. HAINES VALUES HOWEVER WILL BE IN THE FOUR CATEGORY.

DUE TO THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR TONIGHT
EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WATCH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND YOUR
HOSE LAYS. A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ON
THURSDAY BUT WINDS WONT BE NEARLY AS WINDY.

FOR PLANNED IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT 10/17/12
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......SUNNY.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......0 PERCENT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MAX 58-62.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MIN 10-15 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO
                       15 TO 23 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS BETWEEN
                       30 TO 35 MPH.
   MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
   TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST 25 KNOTS.
   MAX VENT RATE.......VERY GOOD/100395 KNOT-FT AT 1300 LOCAL.
   VENTILATION TREND...GOOD/68830 KNOT-FT AROUND MID-MORNING
                       BECOMING GOOD/92000 KNOT-FT BY
                       MID-AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......CLEAR.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......0 PERCENT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MIN 26-30.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MAX 24-29 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH WITH
                       SOME LOWERING AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
   VENTILATION TREND...FAIR/50000 KNOT-FT BY EARLY-EVENING BECOMING
                       POOR/16000 KNOT-FT BY LATE-EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......SUNNY.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......0 PERCENT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MAX 58-62.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MIN 11-16 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS 20 TO 24
                       MPH.
   MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
   TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
   MAX VENT RATE.......GOOD/72300 KNOT-FT AT 1400 LOCAL.
   VENTILATION TREND...POOR/34352 KNOT-FT AROUND MID-MORNING
                       BECOMING GOOD/72000 KNOT-FT BY
                       MID-AFTERNOON.

FORECASTS FOR WINDS ARE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AND MUST BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDING TO FUEL TYPE AND SHELTERING TO GET EYE LEVEL WIND SPEED.

FORECASTER...50

$$

REQUESTED BY...BILL KING
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121017.SANJU.01/ABQ