FNUS75 KGJT 172239
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR VALLECITO...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
439 PM MDT WED OCT 17 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1605 MDT ON OCTOBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS...

.DISCUSSION...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...PRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER SUNSET THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY DIMINISH. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...LASTING
INTO MID MORNING THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-12%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 25 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-34 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........28-33%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 5
                    MPH AFTER 2200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR AFTER 2200.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 19 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5-9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE CHAMBERLAIN
REQUESTED BY...DAN OCHOCKI
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121017.VALLE.02/GJT