FNUS73 KLOT 171257 FWSLOT SPOT FORECAST FOR DERBY DITCH...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 757 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 CDT ON OCTOBER 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 MPH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 100 PM AND 400 PM CDT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON....THEN NUMEROUS SOWERS WITH A SLIGHT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........63 AT IGNITION...MAX 69. RH..................67 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 58 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 16 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 33 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT. LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1300...THEN 1-8 STRIKES. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1000-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2000-4000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 35 TO 40 MPH. MIXING TEMP 1700FT..65. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR /50000 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...VERY GOOD /103500 KNOT-FT/. TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........48 59 68 78 87 90 97 100 100 100 WEATHER COV..... LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............61 63 64 66 67 67 67 66 65 64 RH..............67 62 60 58 59 61 63 68 70 73 20FT WIND DIR...190 190 190 190 190 190 180 180 180 170 20FT SPEED(MPH).12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 20FT SPEED(KT)..10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 20FT GUST(MPH)..30 32 33 33 33 33 32 31 31 31 20FT GUST(KT)...26 28 29 29 29 29 28 27 27 27 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.5 2.5 3.0 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.200 200 200 200 200 200 190 190 190 180 TRANSP WIND SPD.37 38 40 40 40 39 38 36 36 36 CWR.............0 10 10 10 60 60 60 80 80 80 LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 VRATE KT-FT/100038 50 74 96 104 76 36 8 17 39 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 48. RH..................MAX 77 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 32 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT. LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 0100...THEN NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 29 TO 36 MPH. MIXING TEMP 1700FT..MISSING. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (19000-57000 KNOT-FT). TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 98 94 92 90 87 85 84 83 WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............63 63 63 63 62 61 59 58 57 55 53 51 RH..............75 72 70 70 70 72 75 75 75 77 77 77 20FT WIND DIR...170 170 160 160 170 180 180 190 200 210 220 220 20FT SPEED(MPH).13 13 14 14 14 13 12 12 11 11 11 12 20FT SPEED(KT)..11 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 20FT GUST(MPH)..32 31 31 30 28 26 24 23 17 17 18 18 20FT GUST(KT)...28 27 27 26 24 23 21 20 15 15 16 16 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.170 180 190 190 200 210 210 220 220 230 230 230 TRANSP WIND SPD.36 35 32 31 30 29 29 29 29 30 31 32 CWR.............100 100 100 100 100 100 60 60 60 20 20 20 LAL.............3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 VRATE KT-FT/100057 52 39 28 27 30 33 33 32 30 24 19 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 52. RH..................MIN 56 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1300...THEN 1-8 STRIKES. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000-5000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 33 TO 41 MPH. MIXING TEMP 1700FT..54. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO EXCELLENT (19500-185000 KNOT-FT). TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........83 80 78 76 79 81 83 88 93 98 99 99 WEATHER COV..... SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............49 48 48 49 50 51 52 52 51 51 50 50 RH..............77 77 77 74 68 63 59 56 59 61 63 66 20FT WIND DIR...230 230 230 230 230 220 220 220 210 210 210 200 20FT SPEED(MPH).12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 20FT SPEED(KT)..10 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 20FT GUST(MPH)..20 20 22 22 23 23 24 24 24 24 23 22 20FT GUST(KT)...17 17 19 19 20 20 21 21 21 21 20 19 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.240 230 230 230 230 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 TRANSP WIND SPD.33 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 41 41 39 37 CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 50 50 50 50 50 50 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 VRATE KT-FT/100020 26 40 63 100 142 174 185 184 175 166 151 $$ FORECASTER...LENNING REQUESTED BY...MEGAN KORTE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20121017.DERBY.01/LOT