FNUS72 KILM 181327 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR BOB HUGHES BURN...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 927 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 EDT ON OCTOBER 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3600-4500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 12 TO 13 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX ADI.............38. MAX LVORI...........10. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-57039 MPH-FT). TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............66 68 70 72 71 71 70 WEATHER COV......... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC WEATHER TYPE........ RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC TEMP................75 78 79 80 80 80 79 RH..................62 58 56 55 56 58 61 20 FT WIND DIR......SE SE S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD......4 5 5 6 6 6 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 10 15 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......2.3 2.3 2.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.....3 3 3 13 13 13 12 LVORI...............3 3 3 1 1 1 1 ADI.................4 4 4 38 38 38 30 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...8 8 8 57 57 57 41 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61. MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...BECOMING WEST AROUND 15 MPH. MAX ADI.............30. MAX LVORI...........9. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1380-41285 MPH-FT). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............65 59 54 60 67 74 77 81 85 87 88 90 WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH TEMP................77 73 70 68 67 66 65 65 64 64 63 63 RH..................67 76 85 91 94 96 97 97 97 97 97 97 20 FT WIND DIR......S S S S S S S S S SW SW W 20 FT WIND SPD......5 3 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT).......3.6 3.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE SE NW NW NW SW SW SW SW SW SW W TRANSP WIND SPD.....12 12 2 2 2 6 6 6 10 10 10 15 LVORI...............3 3 5 6 7 8 8 9 6 8 8 6 ADI.................30 30 2 2 2 4 4 4 7 7 7 10 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...41 41 1 1 1 4 4 4 6 6 6 9 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800-4300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MAX ADI.............40. MAX LVORI...........7. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (9200-44160 MPH-FT). TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............90 89 89 83 77 72 66 60 54 50 46 42 WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............SCH SCH TEMP................63 62 62 65 69 73 76 77 78 79 79 78 RH..................97 96 97 85 71 61 55 52 50 50 50 53 20 FT WIND DIR......W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD......3 2 2 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.6 0.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 4.3 4.3 4.3 2.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.....W W NW NW NW SE SE SE SW SW SW S TRANSP WIND SPD.....15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 10 10 10 9 LVORI...............6 6 7 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 ADI.................10 7 5 7 7 5 5 5 30 30 40 28 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...9 9 16 16 16 13 13 13 44 44 44 25 $$ FORECASTER...ZOUZIAS REQUESTED BY...BILL WALKER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20121018.BOBHU.01/ILM