FNUS73 KPAH 181334 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR CROSSROADS PILES...USDA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 834 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON OCTOBER 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVING PUSHED THROUGH THE HEARTLAND OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL MIX THROUGH A DEEP LAYER /BETWEEN 6 AND 10 THOUSAND FEET AGL/ TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON GUSTY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. DESPITE THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE OFF THE SURFACE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE SHAWNEE NATIONAL FOREST...ROUGHLY NORTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 57 AND ROUTE 13...MAY SEE SUFFICIENT EVAPORATION FOR FINE...ONE HOUR...FUELS TO DRY OUT. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WITHIN THIS AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 5 PM CDT TODAY. OTHER LOCATIONS...FROM BERNIE AND ELLSINORE MISSOURI WESTWARD AND FROM FORT CAMPBELL TO GREENVILLE KENTUCKY EASTWARD WILL SEE AT LEAST TWO ELEMENTS APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. HOWEVER...TEN HOUR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE SLOWER TO FALL AND THE ONSET AND DURATION OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SHORTENED ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE HEARTLAND UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........62 AT IGNITION...MAX 67. RH..................50 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 25 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 12 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH INCREASING TO 11 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 6900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 9200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 9200-11100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 11200-12100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 8700-10100 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 7100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 36 TO 41 MPH. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............62 63 65 66 66 66 65 63 RH..............50 42 35 32 30 30 32 36 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..10 12 14 14 14 14 11 9 20 FT WIND GUST.25 30 30 35 35 30 30 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...9.2 11 12 12 11 10 8.7 7.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.40 41 40 39 38 36 37 38 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 48. RH..................MAX 70 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-5300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800-2200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 35 TO 38 MPH DECREASING TO 20 TO 28 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO AROUND 0 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............59 55 53 51 50 50 RH..............42 50 54 56 55 57 20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 6 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....5300 2200 1000 1000 1000 900 TRANSPORT WIND..W 38 SW 28 S 12 S 0 S 0 S 0 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61. RH..................MIN 45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8200-8700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO WEST 23 TO 32 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 29 TO 36 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE TEMP............49 55 59 60 RH..............64 58 51 51 20 FT WIND......SW 6G10 W 7G20 W 9G25 W 9G20 MIX HGT (FT)....1000 3600 6800 8700 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 W 32 W 33 W 31 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...TREVINO REQUESTED BY...FOREST SERVICE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20121018.CROSS.01/PAH