FNUS75 KBOU 201026 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 430 AM MDT SAT OCT 20 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY. IT WILL STILL BE WINDY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EXPOSED AREAS...WITH SOME DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO BE WARM AND DRY...WITH CONDITIONS NEARING RED FLAG CRITERIA IN THE LOWER PART OF THE FIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THERE WILL BE LESS WIND ON SUNDAY... THOUGH HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL ONLY BE FAIR OVERNIGHT AND IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND DRY ON SUNDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SOME COOLING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS...SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW IT REMAINING DRY AND BREEZY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 1500...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-62. MIN HUMIDITY........14-20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST WINDS 15-25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ON HIGHER RIDGES DECREASING TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 32-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL RISING TO 7000 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-40. MAX HUMIDITY........35-43%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 11-21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 8-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21-32 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 2000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 2200...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-60. MIN HUMIDITY........19-27%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL RISING TO 7000 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERNLAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/20-04 31 0 0 35 40 SW16 25 2 1 NW48 910 W30 23081 P 10/20-05 38 0 0 36 36 W18 29 2 1 W46 750 W31 19726 P 10/20-06 38 0 0 36 34 W21 33 2 1 W43 590 W32 16370 P 10/20-07 38 0 0 36 36 W24 39 2 1 W41 686 W32 19272 P 10/20-08 35 0 0 35 40 W26 43 2 1 W39 782 W32 22174 P 10/20-09 35 0 0 38 39 W28 44 2 1 W39 878 W33 25075 P 10/20-10 35 0 0 41 33 W24 39 2 1 W39 2155 W33 64958 G 10/20-11 35 0 0 47 25 W20 31 3 1 W40 3433 W35 104841 V 10/20-12 28 0 0 52 20 W15 24 3 1 W43 4710 W36 144724 V 10/20-13 28 0 0 56 17 W15 23 3 1 W46 5305 W35 157139 E 10/20-14 28 0 0 57 16 W16 25 4 1 W49 5900 W33 169555 E 10/20-15 22 0 0 58 16 W17 28 4 1 W52 6494 W32 181971 E 10/20-16 22 0 0 57 16 W20 30 4 1 W53 6121 W32 169518 E 10/20-17 22 0 0 56 18 W21 33 4 1 W52 5747 W31 157065 E 10/20-18 22 0 0 52 21 W21 33 4 1 W51 5374 W31 144612 V 10/20-19 22 0 0 48 24 W18 29 4 1 W48 3928 W28 102764 V 10/20-20 22 0 0 45 28 W15 23 3 1 W46 2483 W24 60915 G 10/20-21 22 0 0 43 29 W12 18 3 1 W44 1037 W21 19067 P 10/20-22 22 0 0 41 32 W10 16 3 1 W43 805 W20 14352 P 10/20-23 22 0 0 40 34 W10 16 2 1 W43 572 W18 9637 P 10/21-00 19 0 0 38 36 W10 16 2 1 W43 340 W16 4923 P 10/21-01 19 0 0 36 39 W10 16 2 1 W43 311 W16 4310 P 10/21-02 19 0 0 35 40 W10 16 2 1 SW44 281 W15 3697 P 10/21-03 19 0 0 35 40 W10 16 2 1 SW44 252 W14 3084 P 10/21-04 19 0 0 35 38 W10 17 2 1 SW40 282 W16 3919 P 10/21-05 19 0 0 36 37 W12 17 3 1 SW37 312 W17 4755 P 10/21-06 14 0 0 36 36 W12 18 4 1 SW32 342 W18 5590 P 10/21-07 14 0 0 37 38 W13 20 4 1 SW29 1224 W24 32703 P 10/21-08 14 0 0 39 37 W13 21 4 1 SW25 2106 W29 59816 F 10/21-09 14 0 0 44 33 W14 22 4 1 SW23 2988 W33 86928 G 10/21-10 14 0 0 48 28 W15 23 4 1 SW24 3818 W32 104972 V 10/21-11 14 0 0 51 26 W15 25 3 1 SW26 4647 W31 123016 V 10/21-12 17 0 0 53 24 W16 25 3 1 SW30 5477 W30 141060 V 10/21-13 17 0 0 54 24 W16 26 3 1 SW32 5725 W28 139408 V 10/21-14 17 0 0 54 24 W16 26 2 1 SW35 5974 W26 137756 V 10/21-15 17 0 0 55 24 W16 25 2 1 SW36 6223 W25 136103 V 10/21-16 17 0 0 54 25 W15 24 2 1 SW38 6101 W24 126749 V 10/21-17 17 0 0 53 27 W14 21 2 1 SW40 5979 W23 117395 V 10/21-18 31 0 0 50 30 SW12 18 2 1 SW40 5858 W21 108040 V 10/21-19 31 0 0 46 35 SW 9 9 2 1 W38 5154 W21 94777 G 10/21-20 31 0 0 43 40 SW 8 8 2 1 W36 4451 W21 81513 G 10/21-21 31 0 0 42 43 SW 7 7 2 1 W33 3748 SW21 68250 G 10/21-22 31 0 0 40 47 SW 8 8 2 1 W32 3052 SW22 56373 F 10/21-23 31 0 0 39 49 SW 9 9 2 1 W32 2357 SW22 44496 F 10/22-00 46 0 0 38 52 SW10 16 2 1 SW32 1662 SW23 32618 P 10/22-01 46 0 0 37 55 SW12 18 2 1 SW32 1465 SW23 29533 P 10/22-02 46 0 0 37 58 SW13 20 2 1 SW32 1269 SW24 26448 P 10/22-03 46 0 0 36 61 SW13 21 2 1 SW33 1073 SW25 23363 P 10/22-04 46 0 0 35 63 SW13 20 2 1 SW35 901 W24 19168 P 10/22-05 46 0 0 35 65 W12 20 2 1 SW36 729 W23 14973 P 10/22-06 34 0 0 34 67 W12 18 2 1 SW37 557 W22 10778 P 10/22-07 34 0 0 35 66 SW10 17 2 1 SW40 1706 W26 46836 F 10/22-08 34 0 0 37 59 SW10 17 2 1 SW43 2855 W30 82895 G 10/22-09 34 0 0 42 50 SW12 18 2 1 W46 4004 W35 118953 V 10/22-10 34 0 0 46 42 SW14 23 2 1 W47 4456 W37 144280 V 10/22-11 34 0 0 48 38 SW18 29 2 1 W48 4909 W39 169607 E 10/22-12 28 0 0 50 35 SW21 33 2 1 W51 5362 W41 194934 E 10/22-13 28 0 0 51 34 SW22 35 2 1 W55 5443 W41 198592 E 10/22-14 28 0 0 51 33 SW22 35 2 1 W59 5524 W43 202250 E 10/22-15 28 0 0 52 33 SW21 33 2 1 W63 5605 W43 205908 E 10/22-16 28 0 0 51 34 SW20 32 2 1 W66 5368 W44 202727 E 10/22-17 28 0 0 50 36 SW20 31 2 1 W68 5130 W45 199546 E 10/22-18 23 0 0 48 39 SW18 30 2 1 W69 4892 W46 196366 E 10/22-19 23 0 0 45 44 SW18 29 2 1 W70 3803 W44 149087 V 10/22-20 23 0 0 42 48 SW18 29 2 1 W71 2713 SW41 101808 V 10/22-21 23 0 0 41 49 SW18 30 2 1 W71 1623 SW39 54529 F 10/22-22 23 0 0 39 51 SW20 32 2 1 W71 1423 SW39 48701 F 10/22-23 23 0 0 38 51 SW22 35 2 1 W71 1223 SW40 42872 F 10/23-00 20 0 0 37 52 SW23 37 2 1 W71 1023 SW41 37043 P 10/23-01 20 0 0 37 53 SW22 36 2 1 W74 940 SW39 32497 P 10/23-02 20 0 0 36 55 SW21 33 2 1 SW75 857 W37 27952 P 10/23-03 20 0 0 35 56 SW20 31 2 1 SW75 774 W35 23406 P 10/23-04 20 0 0 35 57 SW18 30 2 1 SW74 721 W33 21213 P 10/23-05 20 0 0 34 59 W18 29 2 1 SW70 668 W32 19020 P 10/23-06 31 3 1 34 60 W17 28 2 1 SW67 615 W31 16827 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...NATE WILLIAMSON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121019.FERNL.01/BOU