FNUS75 KBOU 211101 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 21 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER. A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THE PLAINS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE FIRE AREA...THOUGH WINDS COULD SHIFT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE WILL BE HIGHER HUMDITIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH PASSES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW IS LIKELY... AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PROLONGED SNOW STARTING SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AND GOING THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL CERTAINLY TURN COLDER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-62. MIN HUMIDITY........15-25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH INCREASING TO 12-22 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 7000 FT AGL BY 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD. VERY GOOD AFTER 1300. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-34. MAX HUMIDITY........65-80%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OVER RIDGES. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-58. MIN HUMIDITY........25-35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 13-19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 7000 FT AGL BY 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200... THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERNLAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/21-04 5 0 0 40 36 NW 9 14 2 1 W39 927 W23 18756 P 10/21-05 5 0 0 39 34 W12 17 3 1 W37 675 W23 13532 P 10/21-06 6 0 0 38 33 W13 21 3 1 SW35 423 W23 8307 P 10/21-07 6 0 0 37 35 W14 22 3 1 SW32 583 W23 11464 P 10/21-08 17 0 0 37 38 W14 22 2 1 SW31 743 W23 14621 P 10/21-09 17 0 0 39 38 W13 21 2 1 SW30 903 W23 17778 P 10/21-10 17 0 0 43 34 W13 20 2 1 SW30 2276 W21 35717 P 10/21-11 17 0 0 49 28 W12 18 3 1 SW31 3648 SW18 53656 F 10/21-12 34 1 0 53 24 W12 18 3 1 SW32 5021 SW16 71595 G 10/21-13 34 1 0 57 22 W13 20 3 1 SW32 5571 SW17 87129 G 10/21-14 34 1 0 57 22 W14 22 4 1 SW33 6121 SW20 102663 V 10/21-15 34 1 0 58 22 W14 23 4 1 SW33 6671 SW21 118197 V 10/21-16 34 1 0 58 23 W14 22 4 1 SW35 6285 SW22 119450 V 10/21-17 34 1 0 55 25 SW13 20 3 1 SW36 5900 SW24 120703 V 10/21-18 41 3 1 51 30 SW12 18 3 1 SW36 5515 W25 121955 V 10/21-19 41 3 1 46 37 SW10 17 3 1 SW36 4105 W23 88339 G 10/21-20 41 3 1 42 45 SW10 16 2 1 SW35 2694 W21 54722 F 10/21-21 41 3 1 40 49 W10 16 2 1 W32 1283 W18 21106 P 10/21-22 41 3 1 38 56 W10 16 2 1 SW31 995 W18 15990 P 10/21-23 41 3 1 37 60 W10 16 2 1 SW30 708 W17 10875 P 10/22-00 47 6 1 35 62 SW10 17 2 1 SW30 420 SW16 5760 P 10/22-01 47 6 1 34 62 W12 20 2 1 SW30 399 W16 5686 P 10/22-02 47 6 1 33 65 W14 22 2 1 SW30 377 W17 5613 P 10/22-03 47 6 1 32 68 W14 23 2 1 SW31 355 W18 5539 P 10/22-04 47 6 1 31 73 W14 23 2 1 SW31 320 W17 4887 P 10/22-05 47 6 1 30 76 W14 22 2 1 SW30 285 W17 4236 P 10/22-06 47 0 0 30 81 W13 21 2 1 SW29 279 W17 4143 P 10/22-07 47 0 0 31 77 W12 12 2 1 SW29 1014 W20 19829 P 10/22-08 47 0 0 34 68 W10 10 2 1 SW28 1750 W22 35515 P 10/22-09 47 0 0 39 54 W10 10 2 1 SW29 2485 SW24 51201 F 10/22-10 47 0 0 45 44 SW12 12 2 1 SW30 3594 SW24 77216 G 10/22-11 47 0 0 48 38 SW13 21 2 1 SW32 4704 SW25 103232 V 10/22-12 38 0 0 50 35 SW15 24 2 1 SW36 5813 SW25 129247 V 10/22-13 38 0 0 51 33 SW16 25 2 1 SW40 6201 SW28 152608 E 10/22-14 38 0 0 52 33 SW17 26 2 1 SW45 6590 SW30 175970 E 10/22-15 38 0 0 53 32 SW17 28 2 1 SW48 6978 SW33 199332 E 10/22-16 38 0 0 52 33 SW17 29 2 1 W51 6507 SW33 190756 E 10/22-17 38 0 0 51 35 SW17 29 2 1 W52 6036 SW35 182180 E 10/22-18 37 0 0 49 37 SW17 28 2 1 W52 5564 SW36 173605 E 10/22-19 37 0 0 45 42 SW16 25 2 1 W51 4817 W36 150412 E 10/22-20 37 0 0 43 46 SW15 23 2 1 W48 4070 W36 127220 V 10/22-21 37 0 0 41 47 SW14 22 2 1 W48 3323 W36 104027 V 10/22-22 37 0 0 40 49 SW14 23 2 1 W51 2998 W37 96440 G 10/22-23 37 0 0 39 49 W15 24 2 1 W53 2672 W39 88854 G 10/23-00 43 0 0 38 50 W16 25 2 1 W55 2347 W40 81267 G 10/23-01 43 0 0 37 51 W17 26 2 1 W56 2140 W39 72608 G 10/23-02 43 0 0 37 52 W17 28 3 1 W55 1934 W38 63949 G 10/23-03 43 0 0 36 53 W17 28 3 1 W55 1728 W37 55290 F 10/23-04 43 0 0 36 55 W16 25 3 1 W59 1694 W35 50686 F 10/23-05 43 0 0 35 56 W14 23 3 1 W61 1659 W32 46081 F 10/23-06 45 0 0 35 57 W13 21 3 1 W66 1624 W30 41477 F 10/23-07 45 0 0 35 56 SW12 20 3 1 W68 2345 W35 75108 G 10/23-08 45 0 0 38 50 SW12 20 2 1 W71 3066 W39 108738 V 10/23-09 45 0 0 42 42 SW13 21 2 1 W74 3787 W44 142368 V 10/23-10 45 0 0 46 36 SW14 23 2 1 W76 4430 W45 172094 E 10/23-11 45 0 0 49 32 SW16 26 2 1 SW77 5073 W46 201819 E 10/23-12 44 0 0 51 30 SW18 30 2 1 SW78 5715 SW47 231545 E 10/23-13 44 0 0 52 29 SW20 31 2 1 SW77 5884 SW46 235164 E 10/23-14 44 0 0 52 29 SW20 32 2 1 SW75 6053 SW45 238784 E 10/23-15 44 0 0 53 28 SW20 31 2 1 SW73 6222 SW45 242404 E 10/23-16 44 0 0 52 29 SW18 30 2 1 SW71 5916 SW45 228518 E 10/23-17 44 0 0 51 30 SW16 26 2 1 SW69 5610 SW44 214631 E 10/23-18 43 0 0 49 33 SW15 24 2 1 SW68 5305 SW44 200745 E 10/23-19 43 0 0 45 37 SW14 22 2 1 SW66 3830 SW38 140426 V 10/23-20 43 0 0 43 40 SW13 21 2 1 SW64 2355 SW32 80108 G 10/23-21 43 0 0 41 42 SW13 21 2 1 SW62 880 SW25 19789 P 10/23-22 43 0 0 40 44 SW14 22 2 1 SW61 782 SW28 18531 P 10/23-23 43 0 0 39 45 SW15 24 3 1 SW61 683 SW30 17273 P 10/24-00 38 0 0 38 47 SW17 28 3 1 SW60 585 SW31 16015 P 10/24-01 38 0 0 37 48 W20 31 3 1 SW59 537 SW32 15151 P 10/24-02 38 0 0 37 50 W22 35 4 1 SW58 489 W33 14287 P 10/24-03 38 0 0 36 52 W23 37 4 1 SW56 441 W35 13422 P 10/24-04 38 0 0 36 53 W23 36 4 1 SW58 488 W35 14716 P 10/24-05 38 0 0 35 55 W21 33 4 1 SW59 534 W35 16010 P 10/24-06 35 9 2 35 56 W20 31 4 1 SW60 580 W35 17303 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...DOUG WATRY REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121020.FERNL.01/BOU