FNUS75 KBOU 221226 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 630 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE MORE WIND TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON TUESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER HUMIDITIES. THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INLAND...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW STARTING SOMETIME WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW AT SOME POINT...AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW...MOST LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-60. MIN HUMIDITY........25-35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1000...INCREASING TO 10-18 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH BY 1400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 7000 FT AGL BY 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-38. MAX HUMIDITY........50-65%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 2000 FT AGL BY 2200 AND 1000 FT AGL BY 0200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2200...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-58. MIN HUMIDITY........20-30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 33-44 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 49-60 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 7000 FT AGL BY 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD. EXCELLENT AFTER 1000. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERNLAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/22-06 40 3 1 32 73 SW 6 6 2 1 SW28 191 SW 7 1127 P 10/22-07 40 3 1 33 70 SW 7 7 2 1 SW30 222 SW 7 1450 P 10/22-08 40 3 1 32 72 SW 8 8 2 1 SW32 252 SW 8 1773 P 10/22-09 40 3 1 35 66 SW 8 13 2 1 SW35 283 SW 8 2096 P 10/22-10 39 3 1 38 58 SW 8 14 2 1 SW37 2187 SW12 34729 P 10/22-11 39 3 1 44 47 SW 9 14 2 1 SW39 4092 SW16 67362 G 10/22-12 39 2 0 49 39 SW 9 15 2 1 SW41 5996 SW20 99994 G 10/22-13 37 2 0 52 34 SW 9 15 2 1 SW44 6321 SW22 119964 V 10/22-14 37 2 0 54 33 SW 9 15 3 1 SW46 6647 SW24 139934 V 10/22-15 37 2 0 54 31 SW10 17 3 1 SW47 6972 SW26 159904 E 10/22-16 37 2 0 54 31 SW13 21 3 1 SW49 6566 SW28 154983 E 10/22-17 37 2 0 53 32 SW16 25 2 1 W52 6160 SW28 150062 E 10/22-18 47 3 1 49 36 SW17 28 2 1 W54 5754 SW29 145142 V 10/22-19 47 3 1 46 41 SW16 26 2 1 W56 4295 SW25 104382 V 10/22-20 47 3 1 42 46 SW15 24 2 1 W58 2837 SW22 63622 G 10/22-21 47 3 1 41 48 SW14 22 2 1 W59 1378 SW20 22861 P 10/22-22 47 3 1 39 51 SW14 23 2 1 W60 1174 SW18 19344 P 10/22-23 47 3 1 37 53 W15 24 2 1 W61 969 SW18 15827 P 10/23-00 45 3 1 36 54 W16 25 2 1 W63 764 SW18 12311 P 10/23-01 45 3 1 36 55 W17 26 2 1 W66 776 SW18 12657 P 10/23-02 45 3 1 36 55 W17 28 2 1 W68 787 SW20 13004 P 10/23-03 45 3 1 35 56 W17 28 2 1 W70 798 SW20 13351 P 10/23-04 45 3 1 35 56 W16 26 2 1 W74 930 SW21 16567 P 10/23-05 45 3 1 35 56 W16 25 3 1 W77 1063 SW21 19783 P 10/23-06 26 0 0 35 56 W15 24 3 1 W78 1195 SW22 22999 P 10/23-07 26 0 0 34 58 W15 24 3 1 W77 1131 SW22 21511 P 10/23-08 26 0 0 34 59 W15 25 2 1 SW76 1067 SW22 20023 P 10/23-09 26 0 0 36 55 W16 25 2 1 SW74 1002 SW21 18535 P 10/23-10 26 0 0 39 48 W17 28 2 1 W81 3693 W51 166912 E 10/23-11 26 0 0 43 40 SW18 29 2 1 W76 4538 W54 217928 E 10/23-12 29 0 0 48 34 SW20 31 2 1 W73 5383 W58 268944 E 10/23-13 29 0 0 50 30 SW22 35 2 1 W73 5676 W56 279932 E 10/23-14 29 0 0 51 29 SW24 38 3 1 SW74 5969 W56 290921 E 10/23-15 29 0 0 52 28 SW24 39 3 1 SW76 6262 SW55 301910 E 10/23-16 29 0 0 52 28 SW22 35 3 1 SW76 6018 SW53 280567 E 10/23-17 29 0 0 50 31 SW18 29 2 1 SW77 5775 SW52 259224 E 10/23-18 59 4 1 47 35 SW15 24 2 1 SW76 5532 SW49 237881 E 10/23-19 59 4 1 43 40 SW14 22 2 1 SW74 4717 SW48 198436 E 10/23-20 59 4 1 40 45 SW14 22 2 1 SW71 3902 SW46 158991 E 10/23-21 59 4 1 39 46 SW14 22 2 1 SW69 3087 SW45 119546 V 10/23-22 59 4 1 37 50 SW14 23 2 1 SW70 2396 SW43 91029 G 10/23-23 59 4 1 35 53 SW15 24 2 1 SW70 1704 SW40 62512 G 10/24-00 27 2 0 35 53 SW16 25 2 1 SW73 1013 W39 33995 P 10/24-01 27 2 0 34 55 W18 29 2 1 SW73 939 W39 31585 P 10/24-02 27 2 0 34 56 W21 33 2 1 SW74 866 W39 29174 P 10/24-03 27 2 0 33 58 W22 35 2 1 SW74 792 W39 26764 P 10/24-04 27 2 0 33 59 W21 33 2 1 SW75 1024 W39 35513 P 10/24-05 27 2 0 33 59 W20 30 2 1 SW75 1256 W40 44262 F 10/24-06 44 18 4 33 59 W17 28 2 1 SW75 1488 W41 53011 F 10/24-07 44 18 4 32 61 W17 28 2 1 SW75 1678 W40 57989 F 10/24-08 44 18 4 32 61 W17 28 2 1 SW74 1867 W39 62966 G 10/24-09 44 18 4 33 56 W17 28 2 1 SW74 2056 W38 67944 G 10/24-10 44 18 4 36 50 W16 26 2 1 SW76 3208 SW40 117341 V 10/24-11 44 18 4 40 42 SW16 25 3 1 SW79 4360 SW43 166738 E 10/24-12 77 24 5 43 36 SW15 24 3 1 SW82 5512 SW45 216135 E 10/24-13 77 24 5 46 34 SW15 24 3 1 SW82 6137 SW45 236979 E 10/24-14 77 24 5 46 33 SW15 24 3 1 SW81 6763 SW44 257822 E 10/24-15 77 24 5 47 32 W15 24 3 1 SW78 7388 SW44 278666 E 10/24-16 77 24 5 47 33 W14 22 3 1 SW74 6914 SW41 247882 E 10/24-17 77 24 5 45 36 W12 20 3 1 SW68 6440 SW38 217099 E 10/24-18 88 41 18 41 42 W10 16 3 1 SW62 5966 SW36 186316 E 10/24-19 88 41 18 37 49 W 9 15 3 1 SW58 5606 SW33 166038 E 10/24-20 88 41 18 33 59 W 9 15 3 1 SW53 5245 SW32 145760 V 10/24-21 88 41 18 32 63 W 9 15 3 1 SW49 4884 SW30 125482 V 10/24-22 88 41 18 30 71 W 9 15 3 1 SW51 4397 SW26 103727 V 10/24-23 88 41 18 28 76 W 9 15 3 1 SW52 3910 SW23 81972 G 10/25-00 84 43 20 28 75 W 9 15 3 1 SW54 3423 SW21 60217 G 10/25-01 84 43 20 27 76 W 9 15 3 1 SW55 3485 SW20 59575 F 10/25-02 84 43 20 26 74 W 9 15 3 1 SW56 3548 SW20 58934 F 10/25-03 84 43 20 26 73 W 9 15 3 1 SW55 3610 SW18 58293 F 10/25-04 84 43 20 26 71 W 8 13 3 1 SW54 3782 SW17 56992 F 10/25-05 84 43 20 26 69 W 7 7 2 1 SW52 3955 SW16 55692 F 10/25-06 83 39 17 26 68 W 6 6 2 1 SW48 4127 SW15 54392 F KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...NATE WILLIAMSON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121021.FERNL.01/BOU