FNUS75 KBOU 231332 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 436 AM MDT TUE OCT 23 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...RATHER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY WINDS SHOULD NO BE QUITE AS STRONG WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNEADAY NIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....55 TO 60. MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 18-28 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 57-72 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-6000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....31. MAX HUMIDITY........68%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 13-21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 49-60 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 36-48 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL UNTIL 2200...THEN 1600-2600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. FAIR AFTER 0500. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....45. MIN HUMIDITY........36%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 13-19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 33-48 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2600 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 6000-7000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1200. LOWS AROUND 9. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERNLAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/23-04 30 2 0 42 52 W24 38 3 1 W86 4790 W64 268963 E 10/23-05 30 2 0 42 53 W21 35 2 1 W89 4847 W66 278295 E 10/23-06 30 0 0 42 55 W20 31 2 1 W89 4904 W68 287626 E 10/23-07 30 0 0 42 55 W18 30 2 1 W87 5026 W67 293328 E 10/23-08 30 0 0 41 54 W18 30 2 1 W85 5148 W67 299030 E 10/23-09 36 0 0 42 50 W20 31 2 1 W82 5270 W67 304732 E 10/23-10 36 0 0 44 45 W21 33 2 1 W79 5443 W64 306265 E 10/23-11 36 0 0 47 39 W23 36 3 1 SW78 5615 W63 307798 E 10/23-12 47 2 0 49 34 SW24 39 3 1 SW77 5788 SW61 309332 E 10/23-13 47 2 0 51 31 SW25 41 3 1 SW76 5838 SW62 312810 E 10/23-14 47 2 0 51 30 SW26 43 3 1 SW76 5889 SW62 316288 E 10/23-15 47 2 0 51 29 SW26 43 3 1 SW76 5939 SW62 319766 E 10/23-16 47 2 0 51 29 SW24 39 3 1 SW77 5817 SW60 304832 E 10/23-17 47 2 0 50 30 SW21 33 3 1 SW78 5695 SW59 289898 E 10/23-18 52 2 0 48 31 SW18 30 3 1 SW78 5573 SW56 274963 E 10/23-19 52 2 0 46 34 SW17 28 3 1 SW77 5086 SW55 247288 E 10/23-20 52 2 0 44 37 W17 28 2 1 SW75 4599 SW55 219612 E 10/23-21 52 2 0 42 41 W17 28 2 1 SW74 4112 SW54 191936 E 10/23-22 52 2 0 40 44 W17 26 2 1 SW74 3409 SW52 156322 E 10/23-23 52 2 0 38 47 SW16 26 2 1 SW74 2706 SW51 120708 V 10/24-00 47 2 0 37 50 SW16 25 2 1 SW75 2003 SW48 85093 G 10/24-01 47 2 0 36 53 SW16 26 2 1 SW76 1818 SW46 74219 G 10/24-02 47 2 0 35 55 W17 28 2 1 SW77 1633 W44 63346 G 10/24-03 47 2 0 34 57 W17 28 2 1 SW78 1448 W41 52472 F 10/24-04 47 2 0 34 59 W16 26 2 1 SW78 1378 W39 46870 F 10/24-05 47 2 0 33 61 W15 24 2 1 SW77 1308 W36 41267 F 10/24-06 54 18 4 31 65 W14 22 2 1 SW77 1238 W33 35665 P 10/24-07 54 18 4 31 66 SW14 22 2 1 SW77 1452 W35 43550 F 10/24-08 54 18 4 31 68 SW14 22 2 1 SW78 1665 SW36 51435 F 10/24-09 54 18 4 32 65 SW14 22 2 1 SW78 1878 SW37 59320 F 10/24-10 54 18 4 34 59 SW15 23 2 1 SW81 3056 SW40 115023 V 10/24-11 54 18 4 37 50 SW16 25 3 1 SW83 4233 SW44 170727 E 10/24-12 81 38 16 40 43 SW16 25 3 2 SW85 5411 SW48 226430 E 10/24-13 81 38 16 43 39 SW16 25 3 2 SW86 6080 SW47 249921 E 10/24-14 81 38 16 44 37 SW15 23 3 2 SW86 6749 SW47 273412 E 10/24-15 81 38 16 45 36 SW13 21 3 2 SW84 7417 SW46 296903 E 10/24-16 81 38 16 45 37 SW10 16 3 2 SW78 6858 SW40 245464 E 10/24-17 81 38 16 43 42 W 8 13 3 2 SW69 6299 SW35 194026 E 10/24-18 98 68 50 39 51 W 6 6 3 3 SW61 5740 SW29 142587 V 10/24-19 98 68 50 35 60 W 6 6 3 3 SW53 5173 SW28 123108 V 10/24-20 98 68 50 31 70 W 6 6 3 3 SW47 4606 SW25 103629 V 10/24-21 98 68 50 29 76 W 6 6 3 1 SW44 4039 SW24 84150 G 10/24-22 98 68 50 27 81 NW 5 5 3 1 SW43 3430 SW21 64735 G 10/24-23 98 68 50 26 86 N 3 3 3 1 SW44 2821 SW17 45320 F 10/25-00 100 68 50 24 89 N 2 2 3 1 SW45 2212 SW14 25905 P 10/25-01 100 68 50 22 94 NW 2 2 3 1 SW43 2149 SW12 21806 P 10/25-02 100 68 50 22 92 W 2 2 3 1 W40 2087 SW 9 17707 P 10/25-03 100 68 50 21 92 SW 2 2 3 1 W38 2024 SW 8 13608 P 10/25-04 100 68 50 20 92 CALM 1 3 1 W37 2282 SW 9 17778 P 10/25-05 100 68 50 21 85 CALM 1 3 1 W37 2541 SW 9 21948 P 10/25-06 89 56 32 20 85 CALM 1 3 1 W38 2799 W10 26118 P 10/25-07 89 56 32 20 85 W 2 2 3 1 W40 3148 W15 43543 F 10/25-08 89 56 32 19 87 W 5 5 2 1 W45 3497 W20 60968 G 10/25-09 89 56 32 20 85 W 6 6 2 1 W51 3846 W23 78394 G 10/25-10 89 56 32 21 81 W 6 6 2 1 W55 4319 W25 95963 G 10/25-11 89 56 32 23 75 SW 5 5 2 1 W59 4792 W26 113532 V 10/25-12 91 50 26 24 69 SW 3 3 2 1 W62 5264 W29 131101 V 10/25-13 91 50 26 26 66 SW 3 3 2 1 W62 5469 W29 137877 V 10/25-14 91 50 26 26 63 W 3 3 2 1 W61 5674 W29 144652 V 10/25-15 91 50 26 27 62 W 3 3 2 1 W59 5879 W30 151428 E 10/25-16 91 50 26 27 61 W 3 3 2 1 W54 5821 W30 151440 E 10/25-17 91 50 26 26 64 W 5 5 3 1 W48 5764 W30 151452 E 10/25-18 96 46 23 24 68 W 5 5 3 1 SW44 5706 W31 151464 E 10/25-19 96 46 23 23 72 W 5 5 3 1 SW39 5507 W30 143020 V 10/25-20 96 46 23 21 77 W 5 5 3 1 SW36 5308 W29 134575 V 10/25-21 96 46 23 20 78 W 5 5 3 1 SW33 5109 W29 126131 V 10/25-22 96 46 23 19 80 W 3 3 3 1 SW33 4884 W29 120598 V 10/25-23 96 46 23 18 81 SW 2 2 2 1 SW33 4659 W29 115064 V 10/26-00 95 43 20 18 81 CALM 1 2 1 SW32 4435 W29 109530 V 10/26-01 95 43 20 17 83 CALM 1 2 1 SW29 4535 W28 106979 V 10/26-02 95 43 20 17 82 CALM 1 3 1 SW23 4636 W26 104428 V 10/26-03 95 43 20 16 82 CALM 1 3 1 W18 4736 W25 101877 V 10/26-04 95 43 20 16 81 W 2 2 3 1 W16 4593 NW24 97369 G 10/26-05 95 43 20 16 76 W 2 2 3 1 NW15 4450 NW24 92861 G 10/26-06 92 28 8 16 76 W 3 3 3 1 N15 4308 NW24 88353 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...NATE WILLIAMSON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121022.FERNL.01/BOU