FNUS75 KBOU 232141 FWSBOU WRKAGF SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 341 PM MDT TUE OCT 23 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1445 MDT ON OCTOBER 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SHOULD BE SEEING MAX TEMP AND LOWEST RH THIS HOUR OR NEXT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH A TREND TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER THROUGH THE EVENING. HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT SHOULD BE BETTER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING TONIGHT...SHOULD NOT GET MUCH BETTER THAN 60% RANGE. WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH. COULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FALL OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED THURSDAY DURING THE DAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....59 NEAR 8500 FT....45 NEAR 11500 FT. MIN HUMIDITY........14% NEAR 8500 FT...35% NEAR 11500 FT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 17-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6200-7200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 55-60 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33. MAX HUMIDITY........64%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 13-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-4700 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 40-50 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 30-40 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45. MIN HUMIDITY........37%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 13-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 7400-8400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 40-55 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 25 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MUCH COLDER. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 8-12 MPH. .FRIDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 14. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 8-13 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/23-15 47 2 0 58 18 WSW 24 39 2 1 WSW 76 7561 WSW 58376704 E 10/23-16 47 2 0 55 22 WSW 21 33 2 1 WSW 77 6623 WSW 55320787 E 10/23-17 47 2 0 51 29 WSW 18 29 2 1 WSW 78 5686 WSW 53264870 E 10/23-18 52 2 0 44 38 WSW 16 25 2 1 WSW 79 4748 WSW 51208954 E 10/23-19 52 2 0 42 41 WSW 15 24 2 1 WSW 79 3966 WSW 49172627 E 10/23-20 52 2 0 41 43 WSW 15 24 2 1 WSW 79 3183 WSW 49136301 V 10/23-21 52 2 0 40 44 WSW 15 24 2 1 WSW 79 2401 WSW 48 99975 G 10/23-22 52 2 0 38 48 WSW 15 23 2 1 WSW 78 1783 WSW 43 71705 G 10/23-23 52 2 0 37 50 WSW 15 23 2 1 WSW 78 1164 WSW 38 43436 F 10/24-00 47 2 0 36 52 WSW 15 24 2 1 WSW 77 546 WSW 32 15166 P 10/24-01 47 2 0 35 55 WSW 16 25 2 1 WSW 77 537 WSW 33 15401 P 10/24-02 47 2 0 35 57 WSW 17 26 3 1 WSW 77 529 WSW 35 15636 P 10/24-03 47 2 0 34 61 WSW 17 28 3 1 WSW 77 520 WSW 36 15871 P 10/24-04 47 2 0 33 64 WSW 16 26 3 1 WSW 77 702 WSW 37 22708 P 10/24-05 47 2 0 33 64 WSW 16 25 2 1 WSW 77 883 WSW 38 29545 P 10/24-06 54 18 4 33 64 WSW 15 24 2 1 WSW 77 1065 WSW 39 36382 P 10/24-07 54 18 4 34 61 WSW 15 24 2 1 WSW 75 1616 WSW 41 60965 G 10/24-08 54 18 4 35 59 WSW 15 24 2 1 SW 73 2168 WSW 45 85548 G 10/24-09 54 18 4 38 52 WSW 16 25 2 1 SW 71 2719 WSW 47110132 V 10/24-10 54 18 4 40 48 WSW 17 28 2 1 SW 74 3823 WSW 51171753 E 10/24-11 54 18 4 43 42 SW 18 29 2 1 SW 77 4928 WSW 53233374 E 10/24-12 81 49 25 45 38 SW 18 30 2 2 SW 81 6032 WSW 56294995 E 10/24-13 81 49 25 45 37 SW 18 30 2 2 SW 85 6487 WSW 55311412 E 10/24-14 81 49 25 44 38 SW 18 29 2 2 SW 90 6943 WSW 55327829 E 10/24-15 81 49 25 42 41 SW 17 28 2 2 SW 90 7398 SW 54344246 E 10/24-16 81 49 25 39 47 WSW 16 26 2 2 SW 84 8254 WSW 47329201 E 10/24-17 81 49 25 36 55 WSW 16 25 3 2 SW 75 9109 WSW 41314156 E 10/24-18 98 68 50 39 50 W 15 24 3 3 SW 66 9965 WSW 35299111 E 10/24-19 98 68 50 35 60 W 14 22 3 3 SW 58 8082 WSW 30225755 E 10/24-20 98 68 50 31 71 W 13 21 3 3 SW 51 6199 W 25152399 E 10/24-21 98 68 50 29 78 W 12 18 3 1 SW 47 4316 W 21 79043 G 10/24-22 98 68 50 27 84 W 10 16 3 1 SW 47 4501 W 20 77089 G 10/24-23 98 68 50 26 86 W 9 14 2 1 WSW 49 4685 W 18 75134 G 10/25-00 00 68 50 24 92 W 8 13 2 1 WSW 52 4870 W 17 73180 G 10/25-01 00 68 50 22 98 W 9 14 2 1 WSW 53 5236 W 21 96518 G 10/25-02 00 68 50 22 95 W 10 16 2 1 W 54 5603 W 24119856 V 10/25-03 00 68 50 21 96 W 12 18 2 1 W 54 5969 W 28143194 V 10/25-04 00 68 50 20 94 W 12 18 2 1 W 55 5789 W 26136051 V 10/25-05 00 68 50 21 85 W 10 17 2 1 W 55 5610 WNW 26128908 V 10/25-06 89 56 32 20 84 W 10 16 2 1 W 54 5430 WNW 25121764 V 10/25-07 89 56 32 20 83 W 10 17 2 1 W 52 5064 WNW 24109716 V 10/25-08 89 56 32 19 87 W 12 18 2 1 W 48 4699 WNW 24 97667 G 10/25-09 89 56 32 20 84 W 12 18 2 1 W 45 4333 WNW 23 85618 G 10/25-10 89 56 32 21 81 W 12 18 2 1 W 41 5058 W 21 85003 G 10/25-11 89 56 32 23 74 W 10 17 2 1 W 38 5782 W 17 84387 G 10/25-12 91 50 26 24 71 W 10 16 2 1 W 36 6507 W 15 83772 G 10/25-13 91 50 26 26 65 WSW 10 16 2 1 W 36 7341 W 15 95231 G 10/25-14 91 50 26 26 64 WSW 9 15 2 1 W 38 8174 WSW 15106691 V 10/25-15 91 50 26 27 60 SW 9 15 2 1 W 38 9008 WSW 15118150 V 10/25-16 91 50 26 27 60 WSW 9 15 2 1 WSW 36 8310 WSW 16114182 V 10/25-17 91 50 26 26 63 WSW 9 15 2 1 WSW 32 7611 WSW 16110214 V 10/25-18 96 46 23 24 68 WSW 9 15 2 1 WSW 30 6913 WSW 17106246 V 10/25-19 96 46 23 23 70 WSW 8 13 2 1 WSW 31 5923 WSW 15 83644 G 10/25-20 96 46 23 21 75 SW 7 7 3 1 WSW 33 4932 WSW 14 61043 G 10/25-21 96 46 23 20 77 SW 6 6 3 1 W 36 3942 WSW 12 38442 P 10/25-22 96 46 23 19 79 SW 6 6 3 1 WSW 38 3733 SW 14 42003 F 10/25-23 96 46 23 18 82 SSW 7 7 3 1 WSW 39 3525 SW 15 45564 F 10/26-00 95 43 20 18 80 SSW 8 13 3 1 WSW 38 3316 SW 17 49125 F 10/26-01 95 43 20 17 83 SW 9 15 3 1 WSW 35 3293 WSW 18 51131 F 10/26-02 95 43 20 17 82 W 10 16 3 1 WSW 29 3270 W 18 53138 F 10/26-03 95 43 20 16 84 W 10 16 3 1 W 24 3247 WNW 20 55144 F 10/26-04 95 43 20 16 80 W 8 14 3 1 W 22 3685 WNW 22 71330 G 10/26-05 95 43 20 16 76 WNW 6 6 3 1 WNW 21 4122 WNW 24 87516 G 10/26-06 92 28 8 15 77 WNW 3 3 3 1 WNW 20 4560 WNW 26103701 V 10/26-07 92 28 8 16 73 WNW 3 3 3 1 NW 20 5326 WNW 26121234 V 10/26-08 92 28 8 17 72 W 3 3 3 1 NNW 20 6092 NW 26138766 V 10/26-09 92 28 8 19 67 W 3 3 3 1 NNW 21 6858 NW 26156299 E 10/26-10 92 28 8 21 63 W 3 3 3 1 NNW 23 7620 NW 23148577 V 10/26-11 92 28 8 24 57 W 3 3 2 1 NW 25 8381 NW 21140855 V 10/26-12 73 21 4 25 55 W 3 3 2 1 NW 30 9143 NW 17133133 V 10/26-13 73 21 4 26 52 W 3 3 2 1 NW 36 8674 WNW 15111651 V 10/26-14 73 21 4 26 51 W 3 3 2 1 NW 41 8206 WNW 13 90170 G 10/26-15 73 21 4 25 52 W 3 3 2 1 NW 47 7737 W 10 68688 G 10/26-16 73 21 4 23 55 W 3 3 2 1 NW 52 6762 W 9 57701 F 10/26-17 73 21 4 21 58 W 5 5 2 1 NW 55 5788 W 9 46714 F 10/26-18 57 2 0 19 62 W 5 5 2 1 NW 59 4813 W 8 35726 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...KRIEDERMAN REQUESTED BY...DOUG WATRY TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121023.FERNL.01/BOU